Could Five Eyes be the price NZ pays for under-investment in defence?

Thursday, 13 February 2025

US President Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.The new US administration has made plain its expectations of increased defence spending by those it is in alliances with.

Josh Wineera is an alumnus of a US State Department study programme on national security policy-making. He is a visiting fellow at the University of Canterbury’s Pacific Regional Security Hub, and a former defence attaché to the Pacific region. He is a director and co-founder of Latent, a consultancy company specialising in partnerships for advanced defence and national security technologies.

OPINION: The speed at which the Trump administration continues to deliver on its America First policies has caught both friends and foes by surprise.

The tariff rift with Canada, Mexico and China; the demand for higher defence spending by Nato countries; and the threat that “all bets are off and let hell break out” if Hamas does not meet the deadline for Israeli hostages to be released, clearly show nothing is off the table in the drive to advance America’s prosperity and security.

New Zealand will not be immune to this more bullish US approach. As Otago academic Professor Robert Patman recently opined, “softly, softly won’t work with the Trump administration”. A “wait and see” approach, or keeping our head down while other nations and organisations take the heat is not feasible either.

Three more Israeli hostages are freed, while US Senator Ted Cruz falsely claims NZ is punishing Israeli visitors. Foreign Minister Winston Peters calls it 'fake news.'

Demonstrable actions that advance America’s interests are now the currency of international relations for the White House. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) officials will no doubt be having many late nights and will be well practised in responding to shifting American views of our country after the messy incident about visa requirements for Israeli citizens visiting New Zealand involving powerful US politician Senator Ted Cruz.

As a member of the important Five Eyes security alliance, New Zealand is now under serious threat. Not from those outside the alliance, but from the real possibility of being removed – fired. The reason? We aren’t paying our way to be part of the exclusive security and intelligence club alongside the US, UK, Australia and Canada.

The only metric that counts is the spending on defence from a nation’s gross domestic product. The world standard is 2%, and President Trump has already called for 5% from Nato nations.

Business Desk senior correspondent Dileepa Fonseka recently commented that, “New Zealand has not spent 2% of GDP on defence since 1992, in the last budget it sat at 1.19%”.

With no likelihood of the Government raising defence expenditure, the writing is on the wall. The ramifications of exclusion would extend beyond the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF). The prime intelligence agencies such as the Security Intelligence Service, Government Communications Security Bureau and National Assessment Bureau will be massively impacted.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters meets with the Biden administration’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington DC last April. Will the warm relationship professed then survive the expectations of the Trump presidency?

We have been here before, with the 1985 Anzus rift and the Lange government remaining steadfast to our nuclear-free policy. Could we now head back into the friend zone?

Just last April our Foreign Minister was warmly reaffirming our close association with his Biden-era American counterpart and specific mention was made of the long-standing Five Eyes partnership. But with a new sheriff in town and a firm seat at the alliance table likely tied to contributing 2% of GDP, it’s hard to see how New Zealand can keep ducking and diving as it has for the past 30 years. If New Zealand thinks being in the club is expensive, being outside could be an even higher cost.

So what to do? Take a “she’ll be right” approach, hope for the best? Hope is not a strategy and not a way to consider national security and the protection of national interests. Like their MFAT counterparts, the New Zealand Defence Force, Ministry of Defence and the intelligence agencies must surely be preparing discreet contingency plans for a post-Five Eyes era. That would be prudent.

But is there a way to stay in the club, while staying below the 2% threshold? Are there other forms of tangible actions that our small nation can offer?

Lieutenant Colonel Oiroa Kaihau (left), whose passing is being mourned by the NZ Army this week, is presented with the Meritorious Service Medal by United States Marine Corps General Peter Talleri. Kaihau’s military service is an example of the sort of connections to the US which we should be highlighting, writes Josh Wineera.

When it is finally released the Defence Capability Plan will be an obvious measure of the value the Government places on our national and global security contribution. Spoiler alert, there has been no political messaging or posturing to say we can expect a major increase in defence spending, so the question will be what will be the delta? Lower than current spending will almost certainly see very serious conversations coming from Washington DC, and even Canberra.

While his focus is on securing the US’s southern border, inviting Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth to New Zealand to get a sense of our impact and locality in this part of the Pacific would be beneficial.

Our proximity to the South Pacific and Antarctica means for wider tensions in the region we might not have 2% but “we have your six”.

Sadly, this week the New Zealand Army has been preparing its final tributes for one of its warriors, the late Lieutenant Colonel Oiroa “Oods”’ Kaihau, a veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq who served alongside American soldiers and who was awarded the US Meritorious Service Medal. Oods didn’t give 2%, he gave 100%, as the nation he served always will.