Why ‘softly-softly’ won’t work with Trump administration

Tuesday, 11 February 2025

President Donald Trump has outlined a slew of executive orders and proposals since taking office last month..

Robert G Patman is an Inaugural Sesquicentennial Distinguished Chair and a specialist in international relations at the University of Otago.

OPINION: The escalating assault of the second Trump administration on the international rules-based order, particularly in the area of trade, is a direct threat to the core national interests of New Zealand and the Luxon-led Government must decide shortly how it will respond.

After more than two weeks in office, President Donald Trump has threatened or placed large tariffs on America’s three biggest trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China – and raised the spectre of a global trade war, with the EU expected to be the next target for US tariffs.

In an interview with Fox News, the US president says their neighbour would be 'better off' becoming part of America.

At the same time, Trump has proposed a US “takeover” of Gaza, Canada and Greenland, signalled his intention to close down USAID, sanctioned the International Criminal Court (ICC), withdrawn the US from the UN Council for Human Rights and UNRWA, demanded Ukraine provide rare earth resources in return for US military aid, and removed any references to climate change on US government websites.

These early moves reveal that the new Trump administration has a radically different vision of the world from that of the Biden administration and most of America’s liberal democratic allies, including New Zealand.

The Trump leadership is opposed to multi-lateral institutions, unless they explicitly serve US national interests, and seeks to reverse a situation where the world has “ripped off” America by constraining immigration, free trade and global governance.

By embracing “America First” nationalism, Trump seeks a return to a Westphalian golden era of unfettered state sovereignty and patriotism where great powers run the world and where America, the greatest power of all, is free to assert its global dominance.

The contrast with New Zealand’s worldview could hardly be greater.

Since the end of the Second World War, all governments in New Zealand have firmly supported a rules-based system of international relations embodied in institutions, such as the United Nations and the norm of multi-lateralism.

Moreover, unlike traditional allies like the US and the UK, New Zealand would like to deepen the rule of law internationally through measures like abolishing or constraining the veto power of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to enhance the security of all nations.

While the current National-led coalition Government says it remains committed to maintaining a bipartisan foreign policy, it has emphasised the need for New Zealand to become more active on the international stage and achieve closer alignment with traditional allies like the US.

Indeed, the Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, and Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, warmly congratulated Trump on his election victory and anticipated that New Zealand-US relations would continue to go “from strength to strength”.

But the actions of the new Trump administration constitute a gross violation of international norms which puts the entire basis of global trade rules and international relations at risk.

So how should New Zealand’s Government respond to this unprecedented challenge in the post-war era?

Some commentators and scholars argue that the country’s national interest is best served by “staying off the radar”.

That is, the National-led coalition government should expand dialogue with the Trump administration, quietly negotiate an exemption to the tariffs the Trump team said it will be imposing on all exporters to the US – New Zealand’s second-biggest trade partner – and decline to publicly support allies and friends like Canada, Mexico and Denmark facing an assortment of threats from tariffs to annexation.

The assumption here is that New Zealand is too small to make a difference internationally and since the country has not been initially targeted by the new administration the Luxon team should work hard to maximise agreement with the Trump team in a damage limitation exercise.

But such a strategy is dangerously flawed. The search for an understanding with President Trump could prove elusive. He is quite capable of rapidly changing his position about any agreements made.

He is currently threatening tariffs against Canada and Mexico after negotiating the current trade arrangements with these states in his first term. And he has gone from demanding that all members of Nato spend 2% of GDP on defence to insisting they now invest 5% of GDP on defence, a figure that exceeds US defence expenditure.

It is also naïve to believe this thoroughly transactional president will not demand major concessions from New Zealand in return for any exemption from US tariffs.

Moreover, it is important that New Zealand, in the words of Christopher Luxon, “stands up for its values” at a time when the Trump administration presents a grave threat to the sovereignty, freedom and prosperity of other liberal democracies.

It may be tempting for New Zealand to keep its head down and hope for some sort of deal with Trump. That would be a grave strategic error and one Trump hopes our Government will make.

A better New Zealand strategy would be to reaffirm its friendship with America, but clearly indicate such friendship cannot come at the expense of Wellington’s long-standing commitment to free trade, the rules-based global order and its solidarity with states like Canada, Mexico and Denmark that share these values.