Wellingtonians still aren't ready for the big one, a year after the November 14 earthquake

Monday, 13 November 2017

The 2016 Kaikōura 7.8 magnitude earthquake shook Wellingtonians into action. Since then businesses and commercial building owners have been proactive in preparing for another quake but homeowners have become more complacent.

One year ago, Wellingtonians awoke with a new appreciation of the threat a big earthquake posed. But while commercial building owners and councils have made good progress preparing for future quakes, the capital's homeowners have become complacent. Collette Devlin and Ged Cann report.

Most Wellingtonians have put disaster preparedness in the too-hard basket, despite the latest estimates that a quarter of the capital's suburban homes will fail if a major earthquake strikes the city.

It has now been a year since a 7.8 magnitude quake struck near Kaikōura at 12.02am, sending out shockwaves that shut down dozens of buildings and caused hundreds of millions in damage across the Wellington region.

The magnitude 7.8 earthquake on November 14 visibly cracked the capital city, but not everyone was shocked into getting quake-ready.

Yet out of the capital's 70,000 homes, only 250 have commissioned earthquake checks, according to Wellington City Council chief resilience officer Mike Mendonca.

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'People always think, 'I must get around to that, I must get around to that' but they never actually do.'

About 25 per cent of Wellington's suburban homes are predicted to fail in a major earthquake, which has raised the question of whether the city's 'character areas' need to be upgraded with base-isolated apartments.

Structural engineer Win Clark explains the different types of quakes, and what buildings they affect.

If Wellington's suburban homes carried an earthquake rating, as its commercial buildings do, then it was believed a quarter of them would fail in a big quake, Mendonca said

'It's something we ought to have been paying more attention to.'

If the big one was to strike tomorrow, many Wellington city residents could face 100 days without drinking water.

But after an initial surge in demand for emergency supplies following the November earthquake, demand appears to have fallen off.

Gary King, managing director of The Tank Guy, said the company could not manufacture enough water tanks to meet demand for the first four months after the quake, when his staff were transporting out 200 a day.

A simulation shows how the Kaikōura earthquake moved up the country before causing Wellington offices to shake, including a call centre in the Hutt Valley, caught on CCTV.

Just 20,000 Grab & Go emergency survival kits have been sold across the Wellington region, which has about 170,000 homes.

'It's just sort of died since then, pretty much,' he said.

King's best estimate was that five per cent of Wellington and Hutt Valley homes were equipped with a water tank. Today, he sells between 20 and 30 tanks a week.

Grab and Go director Michael Anderson said about 2000 of their at-home emergency kits flew off the shelves in the first few days after the quake, but demand eased off after about five weeks.

He estimated his kits were in between five and 10 per cent of homes.

By the end of June, the Wellington Civil Defence Emergency Management Group had sold 14,595 200-litre emergency water tanks across the region, which includes Porirua, Kāpiti Coast, Hutt Valley and Wairarapa.

Wellington City Council's new chief resilience officer Mike Mendonca says business and commercial building owners were taking steps towards towards substantive improvements in resilience but homeowners need to do more.

This equates to 8 per cent of about 170,000 households. But regional manager Jeremy Holmes said more had been sold since June and some councils, like Kāpiti, now require new homes to have an underground water tank installed.

Only 20,000 or so 'Grab Bag' survival kits had been sold in the Wellington Region, but many businesses were developing their own versions of these, while others were making their own, he said.

The Tank Guy managing director Gary King can provide a variety of sizes of water tank depending upon the size of the household.

'It is something we intend to work on going forward.'

Insurance Council chief executive Tim Grafton said Wellington was well covered, with about 90 per cent of homes insured. But appetites from insurers to offer new policies could change if Wellington were to receive further quakes.

San Francisco is now implementing a social resilience programme that started in Wellington.

Mendonca said that with between 50,000 and 80,000 more people expected to flock into Wellington over the next couple of decades, the city needed to consider building more high-rise, base-isolated apartments, possibly at the expense of older buildings in character suburbs.

'We have to have a mature conversation about how we are going to live in future, and part of that discussion has to be whether we retain all of the areas which are currently classified as character areas.'

Wellington Region Emergency Management Office (Wremo) regional manager Jeremy Holmes, left, and group controller David Russell planning for the November 14 earthquake anniversary.

Wellington's business and commercial building owners were making substantive improvements in resilience, but without strong homes the city could crumble, he said.

'We knew people would become complacent [after November] and it happened really quickly because the aftershocks don't hurt.'

The Wellington fault line runs right through the middle of the capital.

The council had gained plenty of insight after its invasive testing of 80 buildings, but was aware there were still lots of red flags.

'The challenge now is to put what we have learned into our planning and our [building] codes. We are at the point where we are looking at how to make rules for the future.'

An artist's impression of one of the proposed community water station.

Mendonca believed Wellington was better placed than it was on November 14, 2016 but still needed to focus on making homes more resilient homes by tackling foundations, bracing and chimneys.

'If we can't live in Wellington, people will leave; and if that happens, the consequences for the economy are devastating,' he said,

'Home-owners are a tougher nut to crack. It's fair to say we have some work to do with standalone homes but regulations are always the last resort.'

LEARNING FROM THE WELLINGTON EXPERIENCE

On a community level, Wellington's efforts to become more quake-ready have become a beacon for San Francisco.

The quake-prone United States city is now implementing a social resilience programme that started in Wellington. It involves creating a framework for how communities can come together and start solving problems after a quake.

In Wellington, some residents are now working alongside the Wellington Region Emergency Management Office (Wremo) to prepare their community, build networks and connections.

Wremo community resilience manager Dan Neely said the organisation had implemented about 48 plans across the region with the aim of eventually having 70 in place.

'One of the challenges has been people thinking that the Civil Defence Centres were the place to go for assistance for all their needs, when in reality, this was not the case.,' he said.

'On balance, we have a good culture of preparedness in Wellington that is better than anywhere else in the country, but there is a way to go.'

Wellington Civil Defence Emergency Management Group regional manager Jeremy Holmes said Wremo had developed a regional earthquake plan that was being shared with councils.

'Recovery can be a couple of weeks but if it is a big event like Christchurch, then it can be decades, so we have started doubling down. By the end of the year, we will have a basic framework for all cities to start pre planning recovery after a large event.'

The confusion around the tsunami threat a year ago – when people did not know what they should do or where was safe – was also a concern.

As a result, Civil Defence was promoting the 'Are you ready to walk out?' campaign, which urged people to walk to the closest blue tsunami line.

People needed to keep in mind the November 2016 quake was centred near Kaikōura, not Wellington, and the worst was yet to come for the capital, Holmes said.

'Wellingtonians need to gather as a community, and prepare for a quake they have never experienced in their life.'

HOW TO GET PREPARED

Practise where you need to go if an earthquake is long or strong: If you live in a tsunami zone, practise after dinner with everyone in your household. If you work in a tsunami zone, practice during lunch with your team.

Strengthen your home and foundations: Check to see if they are secured to the piles, and that they haven't been excavated or compromised by borer.

Know your neighbours and find your nearest Community Emergency Hub: The people nearest you are your best resource in an emergency. The hub is where your community will self-organise its local response.

Store emergency water: You should aim for 140 litres of water per person, enough for a week.

Develop a household emergency plan: Know where you will meet up with your loved ones and plan with your school how to pick up your children safely.

FIVE PROJECTS THAT WILL HELP SAVE WELLINGTON FROM DISASTER

1. Transmission Gully motorway

Four-lane motorway linking northern Wellington to the Kāpiti Coast. Will provide another roading lifeline north of the capital once complete in 2020.

2. Prince of Wales Park reservoir

A new 35 million-litre reservoir is expected to be approved by Wellington City Council, and could be operational within two years.

3. Subterranean and submarine bores

Wellington's life-water flows through a pipe running beside a faultline on State Highway 2. If this were fractured, the city has reserves for only 19 hours of regular use. Bores looking for fresh water supplies have already found good flows off the Miramar Peninsular and encouraging signs onshore in Khandallah and Johnsonville.

4. Facade strengthening

Building owners have until March 31 to tie back masonry facades that pose a serious risk of failing on high-traffic routes on Cuba St, Courtenay Place, Riddiford St and Island Bay. Government subsidies have been made available to get this work done fast.

5. Community water stations

Emergency water stations will be rolled out at 22 spots across the region by June. They will dispense water either from bladders, bores or desalination plants.