Roughly one-in-four chance New Zealand population could be declining in 2050s, Stats NZ says

Tuesday, 8 December 2020

Retirement villages are in growth mode

Depending on which projection turns out to be right, New Zealand’s population could be declining by the 2050s, or it could top 7 million, Statistics New Zealand says.

On Tuesday, it published its national population projections for the period through to 2073, starting from a base population of 5.094 million at June 30, 2020.

While New Zealand’s population grew by 2.3 per cent in the year to June 30 – the fastest rate since the early 1960s – growth was likely to slow in the long term, Stats NZ said.

It makes a range of projections, going from the lowest 5th percentile – where there’s considered to be a 95 chance the actual value will be higher – all the way up to the 95th percentile.

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Projections of New Zealand’s future population vary widely, with “considerable uncertainty” about the number of births being a major reason for the wide-ranging possibilities.

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A more central projection indicates the population could get to 6 million in the next 20 to 30 years.

Ryman Healthcare Bert Sutcliffe Retirement Village in Birkenhead. There is an estimated 90 per cent probability there will be 1.36-1.51 million people aged 65-plus in New Zealand in 2048.

The projections indicate possible population outcomes taking into account different combinations of births, deaths and migration assumptions.

New Zealand’s population had a 90 per cent probability of increasing to 5.13-5.51 million in 2025, and to 5.19-5.94 million in 2030, Stats NZ said.

By 2073, the projections indicate a population of between 5.3 and 8.5 million, with the median projection indicating a population of 6.8 million.

Since 2014, net migration had been the biggest driver of population change in New Zealand, Stats NZ said. For most of the previous 140 years it had been natural increase – births minus deaths.

The projections saw natural increase becoming less important in future, with the total fertility rate having reached a record low of 1.63 in 2020.

Stats NZ expects between 55,000 and 65,000 births a year through the 2020s, after just under 60,000 babies in 2020. But it said there was considerable uncertainty with the number.

By 2073, there was roughly a one-in-four chance annual births could exceed 79,000, and a similar chance that they could be under 48,000.

The number of children aged 0-14 had reached 940,000 in 1974, fallen steadily to 770,000 in 1989, and then rebounded to 970,000 in 2020, Stats NZ said.

Its median projection puts the number of children at 918,000 in the mid-2030s.

Throughout the projection period, Stats NZ uses a median total fertility rate of 1.65 births per woman, but with very high fertility of 2.3 births per woman, the population would reach 7 million in the mid-2050s and 8 million by the end of the 2060s.

Under that projection, 115,000 children would be born in New Zealand in 2073, compared to 63,000 under the median projection.

Stats NZ is more confident about its projections for deaths into the future.

From 34,000 deaths in 2020, it was likely that annual deaths would exceed 40,000 by the early 2030s and exceed 50,000 by the early 2040s, Stats NZ said.

With deaths rising faster than births, annual natural increase (births minus deaths) was likely to decrease.

From 26,000 in 2020, there was roughly a three-in-four chance annual natural increase would be under 20,000 by the late 2030s. By 2045, there was roughly a one-in-four chance of natural decrease – more deaths than births.

By 2030, it was expected 19–21 per cent of New Zealanders would be aged 65-plus, compared to 16 per cent in 2020, Stats NZ said. By 2048, the proportion was expected to reach 21–26 per cent, and 24–34 per cent by 2073.