Tasman District population tipped to reach almost 64,000 by 2031

Monday, 9 March 2020

Bigger crowds at the annual Richmond Santa parade could be on the cards with the population of Tasman District tipped to reach 63,905 by 2031.

The population of Tasman District is tipped to increase by 7300 between 2021 and 2031, to reach almost 64,000.

Across 30 years, from 2021 to 2051, the number of people is projected to grow by 19,300 to almost 76,000.

The projections, under a medium-growth scenario, will be used by Tasman District Council to calculate future residential and business development. This information will be used in the development of the Long Term Plan 2021-31 (LTP) and other related council planning.

In a staff report, council senior policy adviser Brylee Wayman says recent population estimates show the population of the district is growing at a higher level than the high scenario of Statistics NZ projections, which are now three years out of date, and at a higher level than was assumed for the Long Term Plan 2018-28.

Councillor Dean McNamara has questioned some of the projections.

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Every three years, the council uses updated population projections to help predict the location and timing of future development. However, due to delays in Census data, the next update of Statistics NZ population projections is not due until December, which is too late for the development of the LTP 2021-31.

Given the importance of population projections for the council's long-term planning, it engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population, and household projections with low, medium and high scenarios.

Councillor Mark Greening says he believes the council is creating its own spiral. 'The more land you open up, the more they come.'

'Of the three population projection scenarios, staff recommend the medium scenario as the most appropriate to inform the demand forecast assumption for the next Long Term Plan,' Wayman says in her report.

Wayman told councillors that feedback from the council auditor supported the use of Natalie Jackson Demographics' projections and also considered the medium scenario 'as generally the appropriate projection to use as long as you consider the implications of it being lower or higher'.

The projections were based on long-term demographic trends – births and deaths – and observed migration trends since 2006.

In her report, Wayman says that under the medium scenario, it is likely 400 new dwellings will be needed each year, which is similar to the number consented in recent years.

Councillor Dean McNamara questioned some of the projections.

'I can see that Brightwater outnumbers Wakefield in growth and yet their room for expansion is considerably more restricted, I would have thought, given the number of subdivisions happening in Wakefield,' McNamara said.

He also queried the projected increase for Tapawera, tipping it could be higher 'given the number of hops that are going in in that area, for example, which has a higher personnel involvement that what's traditionally been done in the area with farming' and the planned Kohatu park development.

Wayman said the projections at settlement level 'once you start drilling down, it's not as robust as at that ward level but we have to make some assumptions at that level to feed into our financial model and the LTP'.

Councillor Mark Greening said he would be interested to see the natural birth rate growth data 'because, to be quite frank, the rest are unimportant'.

The projected population changes for Tasman District from 2021-31, under a medium growth scenario.

Greening said that natural birth rate data would reveal a declining population. Migration was the reason for 'this growth-driven frenzy'.

'The more land you open up, the more they come,' he said. 'I think, we're creating our own spiral.'

Wayman said that because of an ageing population, 'that natural component is declining over time'.

'Net migration is really driving it,' she said.

The councillors agreed to accept the medium scenario of updated population projects but noted that in specific communities, 'other factors' may need to be taken into account.