City population growth rips ahead of Hamilton City Council projections

Monday, 28 October 2024

More people are choosing to live in Hamilton, but is the city prepared to host them?

Hamilton has taken the crown of New Zealand’s fastest growing city once more, cementing its position ahead of both Tauranga and Auckland.

For city leaders, it’s a trend to celebrate, but it also comes with challenges to housing, healthcare and other infrastructure.

The latest estimate from Statistics NZ places Hamilton as the fastest growing among New Zealand cities at a rate of 3.2% (5,900) compared to 2023, surpassing Auckland’s 2.5% (44,600) and Tauranga’s 1.6% (2,600), whom Hamilton took the crown from the previous year.

The Tron now has an estimated population of 192,000, far exceeding Hamilton City Council projections.

Of the 5,900 new residents, 1,400 came naturally - the number of newborns exceeding the number of deaths - and the rest came from international immigration.

Hamilton deputy mayor Angela O’Leary said the growth should be celebrated for the rising inland city. So why are people flocking here? Think the massive inland port, she says, the soon-to-be-international airport, good schools, significant economic investment in the CBD, jobs brought in by head office relocations such as Rabobank and its relative safety from natural disasters.

For one, Jetstar announced in September that it will begin flying between Hamilton Airport and the Gold Coast from 2025.

Hamilton Airport chief executive Mark Morgan said the announcement was made at a “generational sweet spot” where Hamilton’s population growth, economic activity and economic wealth, as well as the geographical convenience made it attractive for the airline to open international flights.

Hamilton deputy mayor Angela O'Leary says there are big challenges associated with a fast growing city.

The growth, however, worries O’Leary as it will increase pressure on infrastructure.

She said the growth has surpassed the council’s population projection for 2026, which is at 191,538, and the council will have to look at the projections again next year and adjust its budget accordingly.

“Big cities and growing cities come with growing costs and bigger challenges.”

Unlike Auckland, it’s a quick trip into the countryside from anywhere in Hamilton.

The growth means the city will see more pressure on housing, health, infrastructure and education. O’Leary’s biggest concern is the housing pressure and its flow on effect.

“It comes down to affordability again. Council can only put in the infrastructure, put pipes in the ground and build roads, and can zone the land for residential housing, but we can’t force developers to build the houses.”

She said high building costs mean there’s no mechanism to pull levers on developers and force them to build.

“All of those societal issues happen when the fundamental principle of a person owning a home or having a home is not met. That’s a really big tension, and probably for me personally one of the main concerns around this kind of population that’s happening quite quickly is: where do we house those people?”

For example, O’Leary said Peacocke is supposed to house 20,000 people in the future, but only has about 100 houses currently.

Hamilton mayor Paula Southgate said a young population keeps Hamilton going.

Mayor Paula Southgate, who recently became a grandmother herself, thinks good preschools, playgrounds and libraries make Hamilton attractive to young families, which is reflected in the rate of natural increase in the city’s population.

“It’s an easy living city, we don’t have quite the same congestion issues as Auckland does. It’s relatively quiet and peaceful.”

Other than the growth, Southgate welcomed Hamilton’s median age.

Although it has risen to 33.4, it’s still below 35 and remains New Zealand’s youngest city, which means there is sufficient workforce to support those in retirement and keep the economy growing, she said.

The fresh data means the city will have to make sure it can provide for the growth with water services and homes, and work with the government to put in new schools and health facilities.

For her, too, the challenge to growth is the infrastructure required, which is crucial but expensive.

This means part of the council’s work is to talk with central Government about partnering on “big pieces of infrastructure” such as Southern Links, a southern waste water plant and the next stage of the inland port.