Wellington City school-aged population plummets

Thursday, 22 May 2025

Population changes are creating big changes in Wellington’s school make-up (File photo)

Major and ongoing Wellington City demographic shifts have seen the number of school-aged children in the capital plummet with one primary school losing one in every three students.

Infometrics data, using Stats NZ data, shows that Wellington City’s school-aged population plummeted by 4130 in the decade to 2024 with wealthy suburbs Seatoun, Wadestown and Kelburn the biggest fallers. The Wellington region, outside of Wellington City, grew by about 1500 in the same time, suggesting a move outwards.

Elsewhere in the city ‒ most notably in the central city and areas around Churton Park ‒ there were large under-15 population increases but the net effect is the same: There are now fewer school-aged children in Wellington City than there once were.

“Wellington City is experiencing a shift in population growth outward, with surrounding areas like Porirua, Kāpiti, Lower Hutt, and Upper Hutt, and even Wairarapa, showing higher population growth rates,” said Ministry of Education operations and integration hautū (leader) Sean Teddy.

“This suggests that people may be moving away from Wellington City and into these surrounding areas.”

Ministry projections from last year to 2033 show the Wellington region’s school-aged population is expected to drop by 9.1% in the coming decade, compared to 4.6% nationally. It does not project at the city council level.

Infometrics data shows the suburb of Ngaio lost 420 school-aged since 2015 and at the local Ngaio School, principal Raewyn Watson was dealing with the reality. Her roll, 445 in 2019, was now just 283.

“Roll drops directly affects us as our income is directly related to the number of students but our caretaking and maintenance needs don't reduce,” she said.

“As a result our budget is extremely tight.”

Infometrics principal economist and lead demographer Nick Brunsdon: ‘We simply aren’t having children at the same rate as we used to.’

The school opened ballots to get children from out of zone “but there aren't that many around”, Watson said.

But a 14-minute drive away in Churton Park, still one of the fastest-growing under-15 suburbs, Amesbury School opened in 2012 due to Churton Park School nearing capacity. Both schools have only dropped marginally in numbers since 2020, where available Education Counts data goes to. Amesbury opened with a roll of 60 in 2012 and had 283 children last year.

At Te Aro School in central Wellington, principal Sue Clement is sandwiched between the high-under-15 growth area of Te Aro (a 38% increase since 2015) and Aro Valley, which dropped by 22%. Her roll had stayed relatively-stable since 2007.

Infometrics principal economist and lead demographer Nick Brunsdon said Wellington’s drop in children had been going pre-pandemic but accelerated since 2020 “and is yet to slow down”.

“There are some broader trends at play – New Zealand’s population is ageing, and so is the Wellington Region’s population,” he said.

“Nationally, the fertility rate is down to 1.52 per woman, so we simply aren’t having children at the same rate as we used to.”

A replacement rate of about 2.1 child per-woman was needed to hold steady before factoring in migration, he said. At a local level, the fertility rate is worked out at births per 1000 people. Wellington City was lower than the wider region, which itself was lower than the national rate.

But Wellington City seemed the hardest hit in the region, suggesting that people having children were increasingly choosing to do so elsewhere in the region, potentially where there was more choice of affordable housing, Brunsdon said.