From supersize to downsize, GLP-1 drugs are reshaping America’s waistline - and NZ should benefit

Saturday, 16 May 2026

Mike “MOD” O'Donnell is a US-based commentator with extensive experience as a director and adviser to New Zealand businesses. He is currently NZTE’s regional trade director for North America. This column represents his personal opinions.

OPINION: Nine months into living in America and I’ve learned three important things.

First, the United States remains the greatest consumer economy the world has ever built.

Second, if left unsupervised inside an Italian deli or a Texas barbecue joint, I have the self-control of a labrador at a sausage factory.

And third, the future of the food business may now depend less on willpower and more on chemistry.

When I moved to the US to help grow New Zealand trade into North America, I expected to spend time thinking about tariffs, geopolitics, AI and supply chains. I did not expect to become an accidental observer of the American waistline.

Yet here we are.

Living in a city with more than 200 cultures, endless food options and a national talent for supersizing absolutely everything, it is alarmingly easy to gain weight. In my case, around 12 pounds (5.5 kilograms) worth of “market research”.

But while America has always been good at helping people put weight on, it is suddenly becoming remarkably good at helping them lose it as well.

Enter GLP-1.

If you’ve somehow avoided hearing about Ozempic, Wegovy and the growing family of GLP-1 drugs, congratulations on living under a rock with no Wi-Fi. Here in California these things are everywhere. Ads roll through streaming services, social feeds and podcasts. I’m reasonably certain I once saw a skywriting plane over Santa Monica beach trying to sell appetite suppression between sunscreen commercials.

You don’t discover GLP-1. It discovers you.

What started as a diabetes treatment has rapidly become something much bigger: a mass-market appetite regulator. Five years in, it’s increasingly clear this isn’t some passing wellness fad. It’s starting to reshape the North American food economy itself.

That matters enormously for New Zealand exporters.

Because the US market is quietly changing beneath people’s feet.

Even before GLP-1 arrived, consumers were already shifting. Sugar-heavy products were slowing. Protein, fibre and nutrient density were growing. Consumers were becoming more health aware, more label literate and slightly more suspicious of foods engineered in a laboratory by a committee of tired food scientists.

GLP-1 didn’t create that trend. It strapped an intercooled turbo-charger onto it.

The most profound shift is that these drugs appear to move appetite from psychology to biology. Users consistently report reduced “food noise”. Fewer cravings. Less impulse eating. Smaller portions. Quicker satiety.

And the retail impacts are already measurable.

In fact, after peaking at a record 39.9% in 2022, the US adult obesity rate has now declined to around 37%. That’s an estimated 7.6 million fewer obese American adults in just a few years. For a country that has spent decades steadily moving in the opposite direction, that’s a meaningful behavioural and metabolic shift.

GLP-1 users are spending materially less on food overall. Not necessarily trading down — simply buying less. Fewer snacks. Smaller baskets. Less grazing. Less random consumption driven by boredom, stress or proximity to a family-sized bag of Doritos.

Large American retailers increasingly view this as structural. Some forecasts suggest adoption could eventually reach around 20% of the population.

Sugar gets hit. Alcohol gets hit. Fast food gets hit. Oversized portions get hit. Suddenly the economics of indulgence start looking shakier than they did a decade ago.

For New Zealand exporters though, this may actually play to our strengths.

Because GLP-1 appears to accelerate what you might call the premiumisation gap. Products built around excess, habit and craving face stronger headwinds. Products built around quality, nutrition, protein and functionality become more valuable.

That suits a country like New Zealand rather well and some companies are already leaning into it. Telehealth platforms Stela and Moshy are driving this trend by offering direct digital consultations and prescription management for GLP-1 weight loss medications. Concurrently, major retail networks like Unichem pharmacy are providing pre-booking services and customer support specifically for high-demand treatments like Wegovy.

More broadly, we are unlikely to win a global race to produce the cheapest ultra-processed calories on earth. That race was over before we even turned up at the starting line. But we are very good at producing high quality dairy, meat, seafood and premium food ingredients with strong provenance stories.

In a GLP-1 world, foods increasingly need to “earn” their calories.

That changes how products are designed and marketed. Portion size matters more. Protein matters more. Clean labels matter more. Storytelling shifts away from “treat yourself” toward nourishment, functionality and quality.

In short: GLP-1 doesn’t kill appetite. It kills waste.

The effects are already spilling into restaurants and foodservice. Many users report eating out less frequently and becoming more selective when they do. Giant portions, bundles and high-margin extras become less attractive. Lighter menus, smaller servings and protein-centric meals perform better.

And eventually this arrives back home too.

New Zealand will likely lag the United States, but we won’t avoid the trend. Uptake is already growing domestically. Over time we are likely to see the same broad shifts: lower alcohol consumption, reduced tolerance for sugar overload, declining enthusiasm for giant portions and more scrutiny of foods that don’t clearly justify themselves nutritionally.

The interesting thing here is that GLP-1 may ultimately force the food industry to become slightly more honest.

For decades, parts of the sector have relied on engineering products for maximum craveability. Maximum salt. Maximum sugar. Maximum repeat consumption. The economic model depended heavily on people eating more than they needed.

Now a pharmaceutical intervention is arriving that effectively tells the brain: “Actually, we’re good thanks.”

That’s a profound market change.

The food economy is not collapsing. America is not about to become a nation of joyless kale evangelists quietly chewing organic almonds while listening to mindfulness podcasts.

But the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Fewer calories. Fewer impulse purchases. More intentional consumption. More focus on quality.

Five years in, GLP-1 looks less like a drug trend and more like a market reset.

The food and beverage industry isn’t dying.

But it is, quite literally, going on a diet.