Riding the waves in a sea of uncertainty over tariffs and refunds
Saturday, 28 March 2026
Mike “MOD” O'Donnell is a US-based commentator with extensive experience as a director and adviser to New Zealand businesses. He is currently NZTE’s regional trade director for North America. This column represents his personal opinions.
OPINION: I recently chaired a webinar with about 250 New Zealand companies selling into the United States. The topic wasn’t glamorous, but it was urgent: how the past year of tariff turbulence is shaking out and whether exporters might actually get their money back.
The answer is maybe. Refunds are possible. And we certainly hope they will be forthcoming.
The catch is that this is the trade system of the world’s largest economy. Nothing is automatic, quick or even particularly tidy.
Over the past year, many New Zealand exporters have paid tariffs that - according to a recent US Supreme Court decision - should not have been charged in the first place. The court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), including the so-called reciprocal tariffs, finding the legal basis didn’t stack up.
Read more:
Talking loud and saying something - getting your business noticed in the US
Lessons from a vintage indie band in keeping the important things simple
The numbers are not trivial. The US is estimated to have collected around US$166 billion in total tariffs since Liberation Day. A tidy sum, now potentially in play across all the countries that exported between April of last year and February of this year.
Washington’s response was immediate. The White House moved to a new 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, buying time while it lines up something more durable. These tariffs are temporary. They can only run for 150 days without Congress which leaves exporters operating in a narrow and slightly awkward window.
So where does that leave Kiwi companies who have already paid up?
Refunds may be coming but don’t expect a cheque in the mail.
US Court of International Trade (CIT) Judge Eaton, in a case brought by Atmus Filtration, has already ordered refunds and the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is developing a portal called Cape to process claims.
CBP is regularly reporting on its progress to the court with its next progress report due March 31, 2026. Judge Eaton also said that the parties are discussing what to do about finally liquidated entries and those where the importer does not file a claim through the claim portal.
Other IEEPA cases at the CIT have been suspended and others consolidated under Judge Eaton. So we have some promising news but still quite a bit of uncertainty.
The less comforting reality is that there is no single, neat “push here for a refund” button. Some companies are litigating. Others are filing formal protests with Customs. Some are waiting to see how the process lands.
What came through clearly from the experts we heard from is this: doing nothing is a risk.
The speakers at the webinar suggested importers consider filing protests of liquidated entries since the lawsuits have been suspended.
Importantly, in the United States system, filing a protest is not seen a hostile act. It is part of the statutory scheme to keep an entry alive and not final. If lawsuits are needed there is still time to file with a two year statute of limitations. Hopefully, the portal will be operational soon for importers or their brokers to file claims for refunds.
One of the most common points of confusion is also the most important: who actually paid the tariff?
In many cases, it is not the New Zealand exporter. It is the US customer, distributor, or a related entity acting as the importer of record. Refunds, if and when they flow, will go to whoever paid the duty in the first place.
So in practical terms, that means New Zealand exporters need to know who their importer of record is, understanding which entries are liquidated and which are not, and checking that “Harmonized System” codes and documentation are clean. It also means talking early to brokers, lawyers or advisers if refunds are material. And where appropriate, filing protests to preserve your rights.
Importantly you must register in the ACE Portal (automated commercial environment secure data portal) to apply for United States customs refunds, including tariff refunds.
Global trade has always involved some degree of turbulence – from schooners stuck in the Doldrums to changes in political regimes.
The difference now is that legal uncertainty has become a feature, not a bug. The companies that will navigate this best will not be the loudest or the most litigious. They will be the ones who treat trade as a discipline with good documentation and follow-through.
If there’s one certainty in the current environment, it’s that things will keep changing. The smart response isn’t to wait for clarity. It’s to stay ready, get your ducks in a row and put your hand out.
Because in this system, the money may be there. But you still have to ask for it.