Delta pauses Auckland route in move that could see US fares climb
Tuesday, 7 May 2024
Delta plans to suspend its non-stop Auckland-Los Angeles service in August.
Impacted travellers will be notified directly.
Analyst says the move could be a harbinger of things to come as US airlines have oversaturated the New Zealand market.
Delta Air Lines is set to suspend its Auckland service over the winter in a move that may help push up prices for Kiwis travelling to the United States.
Delta was the first of three American airlines to announce a seasonal service between Auckland and Los Angeles in 2023.
When United and American Airlines followed, Delta made its non-stop route a year-round service. But, just six months after it made its New Zealand debut, the airline has confirmed plans to pause the route.
A Delta spokesperson told Stuff Travel the airline would suspend the service from August through September “to better fit our schedule to the seasonal demand environment”. The airline plans to resume the route on October 2.
“Customers with impacted travel will be proactively notified by Delta and re-accommodated on alternate arrangements,” the spokesperson said.
It remains to be seen what the 2025 schedule will look like.
House of Travel chief operating officer Dave Fordyce said the travel agency had seen increased demand for travel to North America as a result of greater capacity on the route.
“While it is disappointing to hear Delta will go back to seasonal service between Los Angeles and Auckland, it is not completely surprising as the winter months are always more difficult for an airline to support as they rely on strong inbound tourism from the US, which is traditionally lighter than the summer peaks.”
Aviation expert Irene King agreed, saying Delta is primarily concerned with American travellers who, by and large, would prefer a Northern hemisphere summer over a winter Down Under.
“The other factor to take into consideration is the supply chain issues associated with engine problems on aircraft that fly down into this part of the world. All airlines are being impacted, so it makes sense to deploy what are limited resources into the higher-value markets - and that’s about carrying Americans around America.”
King said Delta may eventually decide not to return to New Zealand if it decides there are better uses of the aircraft.
“For New Zealanders it means a reduction in competition on the LAX route at a time when we like to and do traditionally travel more.”
The increased competition between New Zealand and the US has led to lower airfares, particularly to Los Angeles. If demand remains the same - or increases - fewer flights could lead to higher fares.
Fordyce said competition to North America remains strong and predicted that it will remain a popular destination for Kiwis.
King, by contrast, said the tough economic climate and low value of the New Zealand dollar compared to its US counterpart could see New Zealanders look to holiday elsewhere.
“If Kiwis are going abroad, they are going to be chasing value for money and the story there is Asia. It’s summer in Asian countries impacted by seasons or summer all year round in the likes of Bali, where there are just absolutely phenomenal deals to be had.”
Singapore-based aviation analyst Brendan Sobie said he thought US airlines had oversaturated the New Zealand market.
“The number of NZ-US flights were at record levels this past (New Zealand) summer by a wide margin. For the current winter season, the number of flights is more reasonable, but given the much lower levels of demand in winter the market may still be oversupplied.
“While intense competition and record levels of capacity are good for consumers, it is not always sustainable.”
Sobie said New Zealand may see more route adjustments from US carriers.
“It is the expansion of the US carriers - and to some extent Qantas' launch of Auckland-New York - that led to the overcapacity situation.
“US carriers operated up to 38 weekly flights to New Zealand this past winter compared to up to 19 weekly flights prior to the pandemic. Air New Zealand still has fewer flights to the US than before the pandemic and has been impacted by the flood of new US flights. To see the market normalise would be healthy, although consumers of course always prefer situations where there is overcapacity.”
Air New Zealand operates direct flights to Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Houston and New York, but has has extended the pause on its Chicago service until the second half of 2025 due to engine issues.
Qantas offers a direct service between Auckland and New York but Airlines.com editor-in-chief Geoffrey Thomas has predicted the airline will abandon the route once it launches flights from Sydney to the Big Apple in late 2025.
In addition to its seasonal Auckland to Los Angeles service, United flies from Auckland and Christchurch to San Francisco.
American Airlines also flies direct to Dallas Fort Worth between October and late March, while Hawaiian Airlines operates a seasonal service between Auckland and Honolulu.