Pacific braces for the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle

Friday, 10 February 2023

Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to travel right over Norfolk Island.

A tropical cyclone watch has been issued on Norfolk Island, New Caledonia and southern Vanuatu as residents there prepare for one of the worst storms forecast to hit the region.

Cyclone Gabrielle, a category 3 storm, continues to strengthen in the Coral Sea as it barrels towards the Pacific.

It remains on track for a direct hit on Aotearoa early next week.

George Plant, Norfolk’s Emergency Management Controller, says Gabrielle is expected to hit the island on Saturday.

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Plant said people have been told to take care and heed the advice from authorities as “this is probably the worst one we've seen for a long time”.

The Pacific is in the midst of its tropical cyclone season, which typically runs between November and April.

Forecasts warn Gabrielle continues to gather strength and could potentially be “the most serious storm to impact New Zealand this century”.

With wind gusts of up to 140kph and moving southeast, the storm will “directly impact Norfolk Island” during Saturday and Sunday with the eye forecast to pass overhead around 9pm Saturday, he said.

“Very strong winds will develop Saturday morning becoming damaging strength during the day.”

The calm before the storm: Swells roll in along the Norfolk coastline.

Norfolk, a territory of Australia, is located 1100km north-west of Auckland and has a population of about 2500.

Cyclone Gabrielle poses no direct threat to the Australian mainland, but has generated increased winds and large waves and swells as it moves off the Queensland coastline and towards Norfolk.

In Papua New Guinea, 150km from Queensland, heavy rainfall has been reported in the National District Capital and Milne Bay Province.

PNG’s National Weather Office warned of further rain and gale-force winds in these areas.

Benjamin Malai, the assistant director at NWO, urged coastal villages to stay away from the sea and cancel all fishing trips.

People waiting at the Norfolk Airport on Thursday.

“The rains are also being experienced in the capital Port Moresby, so we are urging people to heed the advice until the threat of Cyclone Gabrielle passes.”

A cyclone watch has also been issued for New Caledonia, the government there announced on Friday.

Meteo France Nouvelle-Caledonia chief Richard Renaud told a media conference in the capital Noumea that Gabrielle is expected to be located about 550km to the far southwest of New Caledonia on Saturday night, then move southeast.

Renaud said heavy-lashing rainfall is expected along with peak waves.

He said power and communications will also be disrupted on some parts of the island.

'Strong and possibly gale force winds, heavy rain and large waves are expected to affect exposed parts of New Caledonia and southern Vanuatu for a time from Friday evening through to Sunday,” Renaud said.

Emergency services have activated their cyclone response plan as Gabrielle closes in, he said.

In southern Vanuatu, the community is advised to familiarise themselves with the alert levels and consider what action they will take if the cyclone threat is continuing.

The Vanuatu government said the storm is expected to continue to track southeast out of the tropics on the weekend.

“Heavy rain and gale-force winds are also expected to lash the southern parts of Vanuatu,” the government said in a statement.

WeatherWatch NZ has predicted Gabrielle to reach Aotearoa between Sunday and Tuesday.

“If this current modelling comes true, this will likely be the most serious storm to impact New Zealand this century, especially with Auckland being in the mix for a potential direct hit.

“Just as Gabrielle reaches northern NZ it’s expected to encounter higher air pressure to our east – this acts like an invisible brick wall in the sky and that is expected to then curve the cyclone due-south and directly into the upper North Island,” WeatherWatch.co.nz said.

The new weather warnings come less than two weeks after Tāmaki Makaurau was hit by historic levels of rain, which left four people dead and caused widespread flooding and landslides.