Pacific predictions: What's on the horizon for 2023

Friday, 27 January 2023

It comes after the US announced its new Pacific strategy aimed to increase engagement in the region.

Whether it’s politics, economics, Pacific regionalism or the impacts of geostrategic competition, the experts say there will be no shortage of discussion and analysis on the blue continent this year.

Dr Tess Newton Cain at Griffith Asia Institute in Brisbane says the political landscape of the Pacific will be influenced, to a large extent, by the events of 2022.

She said there is much to “anticipate” with changes of government in Australia, Nauru, Vanuatu and Fiji, whileJames Marape had secured a second term as prime minister in Papua New Guinea.

In New Zealand,national elections are scheduled to take place in October.

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Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka’s coalition has ended the 16-year rule of Frank Bainimarama’s government.

Last week, Jacinda Ardern announced her shock resignation as prime minister saying she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do the job.

Ardern has been replaced by Chris Hipkins, with Carmel Sepuloni taking over from Grant Robertson as deputy PM. Sepuloni, the first Tongan MP of Aotearoa, also made history here by becoming the first Pasifika deputy prime minister.

Pacific community leaders believe her appointment will bring positive change.

But what are Labour’s chances of winning a third term? The centre-left party was already in doubt trailing National in the opinion polls.

In Fiji, former coup leader Sitiveni Rabuka secured a coalition government to oust Frank Bainimarama, another coup maker, and end his FijiFirst Party’s 16-year rule following the December 14 election.

“Fiji has had coalition governments before, so keeping everyone focused and managing the many and varied expectations of the community at large will prove challenging,” said Cain, who is the Pacific Hub’s project lead at Griffith.

Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia are also scheduled to hold national elections this year, with snap polls possible in Vanuatu and Kiribati.

In the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare’s government pushed through legislation last year which means elections will be held in 2024 and not this year.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, right, locks arms with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Honiara in May 2022.

Critics claim there was some influence from Sogavare’s new friends in Beijing. The prime minister was criticised over his decision to sign a security deal with China early last year.

The agreement allows Sogavare to call on the Chinese authorities for any defence and policing assistance.

In her latest research, Cain found that continuing the recovery from the economic impacts of Covid-19 would be a focus in 2023 as it was last year.

“There will be challenges across the region. Tourism-focused economies may find that the reliable markets of Australia and New Zealand are less predictable if interest rates and the cost of living continue to increase in those countries,” she said.

“The new government in Fiji has already flagged that the debt situation they have inherited is going to create some significant challenges.”

Researcher Ashutosh Sharma said in 2022, Asia-Pacific countries had largely avoided the economic slowdown that major economies elsewhere experienced.

But that is now changing, he said. “Asia-Pacific governments and firms will turn inward, doubling down on interregional trade partnerships and investing in customer experience improvements.”

In PNG, the ongoing issues related to restrictions on foreign exchange have been felt in the new year.

In the Solomon Islands, the Sogavare government is hitching significant economic expectations when it hosts the Pacific Games later this year.

Sogavare had said he expected the competition to be the “largest single employer in the country by the end of the second quarter of the year”.

Kiribati President Taneti Maamau announced his government’s withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum in July 2022.

While labour mobility options will ease financial pressures at the household and community level, Cain believes significant structural concerns remain and will be the focus of debate in the coming year.

“They include persistent abuses of workers in receiving countries, social impacts in sending countries, and concerns about a brain drain from the region,” she said.

“When it comes to Pacific regionalism, there are some tensions at play that have the potential to cause significant disruption.

“This comes at a time when the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) is working to establish the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent as the blueprint for regional co-operation and the framework for future engagement with external partners,” Cain said.

Australia is set to roll out its Pacific Engagement Visa which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says is an important development in migration.

The fallout from the ‘Micronesian Five’ in 2021 continues. Kiribati remains out of the “forum family” after announcing its exit at the leaders’ meeting in Fiji in July 2022.

But Rabuka, forum chair, said during a visit to Tarawa this week that he feels he has repaired relations with Kiribati.

This includes the tenure of Henry Puna, as forum secretary general, which will end in 2024.

The transfer of forum chair from Fiji to Cook Islands next year coincides with an increased focus on deep sea mining, Cain said.

“With the International Seabed Authority expected to formalise regulatory requirements in relation to deep sea mining during 2023, the potential for this to cause rifts within the region is significantly elevated.”

The geopolitical competition in the Pacific between China and the United States will continue to be a preoccupation for many, including the international media, Cain said.

“We will see increased diplomatic presence in the region, from the US and others. The newly created ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ is expected to convene its first meeting this month.

“Questions will remain as to how well aligned these initiatives are to Pacific aspirations and priorities, and the extent to which they are informed and guided by local expertise and Pacific ways of thinking and being,” she said.

There will be an increased focus on geopolitics and environmental concerns, including climate change.

Japan is under intense scrutiny over its plan to release treated nuclear wastewater from its Fukushima power plant into the Pacific Ocean this year.

The Marshall Islands want the ongoing impacts of the nuclear legacy addressed within the context of negotiating a renewal of the Compact of Free Association funding with the US.

“The coming year promises to be one filled with interest in our region – there will be much to learn as things unfold,” Cain said.