Coalition holds on to power in latest political poll

Friday, 4 April 2025

The three coalition parties would be able to form a government if an election were held today, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Poll.

The poll, conducted between March 29 and April 1, shows National effectively static, down just 0.1 points on the previous TPU–Curia Poll, while Labour is down 4.3 points.

The preferred prime minister poll results show a tight contest between National leader Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins, while NZ First leader Winston Peters surpassed the 10% threshold for the first time in a TPU–Curia Poll.

Party vote results:

National: 33.5%, down 0.1 points
Labour: 29.8%, down 4.3 points
Green Party: 11%, up 1 point

A new poll from the Taxpayer’s Union spells more bad news for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as his Coalition appears to be losing support. The numbers show Labour edging ahead of National and the left with enough votes to govern.

ACT: 10%, up 2.3 points
NZ First: 7.4%, up 2.3 points
Te Pāti Māori: 4.3%, down 2.2 points

Those results would mean the centre-right bloc holding 64 seats in the House of Representatives, up six seats from last month’s poll and enough to form a government, while the centre-left bloc loses five seats to a total of 57.

Preferred PM results:

Christopher Luxon: 21.9%, up 1.6 points
Chris Hipkins: 18.9%, down 1.8 points
Winston Peters 12.8%, up 4.2 points. This is the first time Peters has polled over 10% as Preferred PM in our poll.
David Seymour: 8%, up 3 points
Chlöe Swarbrick: 4.2%, down 0.6 points

The latest two polls - the Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Poll published on Friday and the RNZ-Reid Research poll published earlier this week - have seen a turnaround for the coalition after a succession of poor results.

Poll after poll this year have shown the Opposition parties ahead of the three governing parties, with Hipkins also pulling ahead of Luxon in the preferred PM polling.