Gareth Hughes: Time for the Greens to ditch a key election strategy

Friday, 10 February 2023

It comes after the exit of some big political names, Cushla Norman reports.

Gareth Hughes is a political commentator and the New Zealand lead for the Wellbeing Economy Alliance. He's a former Green MP but is not a member of any political party.

OPINION: Have Labour retirements opened the door for the Greens to walk through?

Green strategists must be champing at the bit now that Grant Robertson won’t be standing again in Wellington Central, and Jacinda Ardern, Paul Eagle and David Clark are retiring from their Mount Albert, Rongotai, and Dunedin electorates.

Those are four of the Greens’ highest-performing five seats. The other is currently held by Chlöe Swarbrick, opening up a unique opportunity in October for the Greens to ditch a decades-old strategy that shuns seriously standing in electorates.

* Two of three Wellington general electorates being vacated 'unusual'

* Election 2020: Both confident and fearful, the Greens try to make a buzz

Green Party Co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson celebrate their party’s showing in the 2020 election – a result driven primarily by a focus on party votes.

Contesting electorates has been a vexed and contentious issue for the Greens ever since Jeanette Fitzsimons won Coromandel and carried the party into Parliament on her shoulders in 1999.

After losing the seat in 2002, the party’s strategy for the next 15 years was to exclusively focus on campaigning for party votes and crossing the 5% threshold to maintain their parliamentary representation.

The internal thinking was voters were unlikely to throw two votes the Greens way, so with scarce resources, the party couldn’t afford to risk wasted votes for candidates over party.

Green Party MP Chloe Swarbrick the day after her successful campaign for the Auckland Central electorate – achieved against some scepticism from her own party, and a feat she is aiming to repeat in 2023.

Some candidates’ anecdata led them to think they could be the exception to the rule, but their bids were ruled out.

Co-leader Metiria Turei used to warn candidates this was “the fever” talking.

There was also a nervousness of internal power imbalances between list and electorate MPs, and the watering-down of policy positions to win over a majority of voters in a seat.

Swarbrick had to fight hard internally against this ingrained position for her chance to contest Auckland Central in 2020, and was vindicated by her energetic and ultimately successful campaign. This saw her become only the second Green MP to win a seat.

Her challenge this year is to be the first to hold one.

Wellington Central, the Greens’ highest-polling seat, must be the best chance for the party to grab a second.

With incumbent Grant Robertson, and previous candidates Nicola Willis and James Shaw, ruling out standing in the electorate, the race is now wide open and commentators will find it as exciting as the 1996 one portrayed in the classic documentary Campaign.

Julie-Anne Genter is being tipped as another strong electorate candidate for the Greens in the Wellington seat of Rongotai.

In the space of a week, Shaw – the Greens’ co-leader – went from posting that he intended to stand in Wellington Central, to instead nominating Wellington city councillor Tamatha Paul in his stead.

By all accounts, this wasn’t a case of Shaw being rolled by disaffected members.

Over the course of a soul-searching week, Shaw was genuinely persuaded Paul had a better chance of following Swarbrick’s example.

Paul is a charismatic young councillor and proven vote-winner. She is much more likely to turn out an energetic campaign staffed by an army of young volunteers.

Gareth Hughes is a political commentator and a former Green MP, but is no longer a member of any political party.

Also unlike Shaw, and probably whoever Labour nominates, Paul won’t be on a party list and will make the compelling case that “only an electorate vote” will see her elected to Parliament.

In the neighbouring electorate of Rongotai, former Green minister Julie Anne Genter is running and has a strong shot.

As a sitting MP and potential Transport Minister if the Greens sit around Hipkins’ Cabinet table, in a city full of transport woes she will be competitive against Labour’s replacement for the outgoing MP Paul Eagle, in the Greens’ second-highest polling seat.

Dunedin could have been in play for the Greens if the city’s former mayor, Aaron Hawkins, had stood in this student-rich seat; and Mt Albert (the last of the Green’s highest-polling electorates) looks unlikely to be seriously contested, with no strong Green candidate announced. Two or three out of five ain’t bad.

Labour won’t like losing long-held seats, but growing from one to three seats would be a significant milestone for the Greens.

Given electorates seats don’t change the proportion of Parliament, a question the Greens have to ask themselves is, why break from history and pour in treasure and time to win? There’s no strategic benefit.

Two or three electorate MPs would just reduce the number of MPs coming in on the list. With the party’s polling consistently above the threshold, they don’t need an electorate as a backstop. Why bother?

There are some good reasons to try. Electorate MPs can access parts of the community off-limits to list MPs, from ribbon cutting ceremonies to school prize givings, raising local profile and stature which is an investment in future votes.

Electorate MPs receive more parliamentary resources and staff, and frankly have more mana when it comes to working in their community.

The most compelling reason, however, might be symbolic. It’s a strong message that green issues aren’t minority concerns any more, and that the party wants to broaden its support and break the 5-10% ceiling it has been stuck under.

They only have to look across the ditch to see how it’s done.

In Australia, the Greens went from no lower house representation, to a single MP in 2010, to four MPs in 2022.

They have developed a formidable campaigning machine, with legions of enthused door-knockers and phone-callers.

The New Zealand Greens have learnt from these tactics with numerous activist exchanges and their campaign director, Chennoah Walford, has run campaigns in Australia.

At a time when climate induced-disasters see the public more open to climate action than ever, and with enticing vacancies in their strongest seats, the Greens would be mugs to stick to the old script and only ask for party votes.