Josie Pagani: I predict that before long a bot will be writing this column

Thursday, 5 January 2023

The robot performs dances from around the world upon request.

Josie Pagani is a commentator on current affairs and a regular contributor to Stuff. She works in geopolitics, aid and development, and governance.

OPINION: I predict that by the end of this year an artificial Intelligence bot will write this column in the style of Josie Pagani. Are you sure this has not already happened?

Peering only for a minute or so into the future, I foretell I am going to make more predictions.

My record speaks for itself. I went on live TV in 2016 with pithy talking points to explain why Hillary Clinton had just won the US presidency.

* Josie Pagani: Why ‘Wellbeing’ is hurting us

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Josie Pagani never thought CDs would take off.

In the 1980s, I scoffed at the arrival of CDs because it was obvious that cassette tapes would be the future.

I was very excited at the prospect of self-tying shoe laces.

Christopher Luxon is unlikely to make major shifts in his reshuffle, says Thomas.

In 1999, I refused to replace my mobile because cellphones were about to become obsolete. Laptops were the future.

If my predictions were accurate, then by now we would have cured cancer and set up home on the Moon. I did not predict that, instead of inventing a machine to put my duvet cover on, we would have robot legs for snakes and the Hoverbrella.

A hundred years ago, the best minds of 1923 got together to predict what the year 2023 would look like.

In 1923, it was predicted beauty contests would be ‘unnecessary’ in a hundred years. That prediction turned out to be wrong.

They might have more helpfully looked for nearer threats, which turned out to be the Holocaust, world war, nuclear bombs and later other sources of global misery, such as three-quarter pants, Waka Kotahi and televised golf.

In 1923, boffins predicted that women would blacken their teeth and shave their heads. Which is scarily accurate. No-one can afford to go to the dentist. Christopher Luxon's head is on-trend.

Weirdly they predicted that ‘’men would wear their curls’’. Sorry Christopher.

Josie Pagani: I had more wow moments learning about the universe from six hours of podcasts than I had in 12 years of school.

Did men not have curly hair in 1923?

Beauty contests would be ‘’unnecessary’’ because everyone would be beautiful rather than because the world would come to see them as applied misogyny. Anyway, they turned out to be wrong, because what else is The Bachelor but an updated gawk show?

Clearly they had a different concept of ‘necessary’ in 1923. Food, water, ambulances – necessary. Beauty contests, TVNZ/RNZ merger – not so much.

By 2023, we would live to 300 years old, they predicted. What we actually got was waiting lists for the GP and if you want to be seen in the emergency room it’s best to make an appointment. I wouldn’t be surprised to phone 111 and hear the voice at the other end say ‘’What service would you have liked?’’

Nasa’s Perseverance Mars rover is seen in a 'selfie' that it took on the planet in September 2021.

In 1923, they got this right about the future: War would still be a thing. They predicted we would attack each other by firing jets of water charged with electricity. Not far off. Indian and Chinese soldiers have been battering each other across their contested border with sticks. I’m looking forward to China settling things once and for all by challenging India to a pillow fight.

The brains of 1923 predicted newspapers would no longer exist. They forecast that most communication would be telepathic. Perhaps they meant social media, telepathy for angry people with keyboards.

Given enough generosity, then, predictions can be somewhat accurate, which brings me to my forecasts for 2023.

Russians who criticise their government's murderous and illegal war on Ukraine will continue to balance much too close to window sills.

You will still be panicking about charging your EV when you're on holiday.

We are going to hear a lot about the cost of living from politicians who wouldn’t recognise a cost of living crisis if it hit them in their shaved heads.

The election will be contested between politicians who have lost the art of communication, but not, alas, the art of speech (to paraphrase former UK prime minister Gordon Brown).

We will treat election promises with the same deference we reserve for the claim that chips cooked in the air fryer you got for Christmas will taste as good as fried.

Robots can already win every chess game on Earth and explore Mars, but by the end of this year AI still won't be able to detect sarcasm or a joke, which makes me think Alexa is the real source of Twitter.

The one prediction I am truly confident in is that we will never know what the future holds.

Like those economists who’ve predicted six of the last two recessions, forecasting is a mug’s game. You might as well drive a car blindfolded and get instructions from a person looking out the rear window.

Best to focus on what we are uncertain about, and what we can fix today.

For the record, I remain deeply disappointed I still don’t have a personalised jetpack. That hybrid hatchback is a poor substitute.