Tory Whanau dispels notion Wellington mayoralty is a two-horse race

Monday, 12 September 2022

Tensions between Paul Eagle and Andy Foster in Stuff's Wellington mayoral debate

Dave Armstrong is a playwright and satirist based in Wellington.

OPINION: If there’s a dominant image of the Wellington mayoral campaign for me so far, it’s the last minutes of the Stuff debate when Andy Foster and Paul Eagle were sniping at each other about who voted for what way back.

As they bickered like naughty sixth formers in the principal’s office, both insisting on the last word, Tory Whanau quietly beamed. She didn’t have to say a word. Things got even more heated later, and Whanau, emerging as the fresh, plague-on-both-your-houses candidate, urged the two men to calm it down.

Any thoughts that this was a two-horse race between Foster and Eagle, as Foster had suggested, were now well and truly dispelled.

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When I attended the excellent mayoral candidate debate run by Radio Waatea and Te Ūpoko o Te Ika, it was Whanau who had the most supporters in the crowd and who received the most sympathetic hearing. She spoke well and recently aced an unscientific Stuff poll with nearly 50% of the vote.

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Dave Armstrong: “It’s been a very good week for Tory Whanau – who I would have placed third at the beginning of the campaign – and a not-so-good week for the arguing six form boys.”

Eagle also had considerable support in the room and although Foster was playing away from home, he spoke well, too. Despite the council dysfunction in the first half of his term, Foster was able to appear relentlessly positive and point to some achievements.

He did, however, get offside with the crowd when he blamed the city’s crime problem on emergency housing, immediately clarifying over a few jeers that it was the lack of support for the tenants that was the problem.

If Tory Whanau “can continue to be calm and conciliatory, and responds well to policy questions, she could ram home her current advantage”, Dave Armstrong writes.

Moderator and Labour stalwart Shane Te Pou later picked Whanau as the most impressive candidate and there is no doubt she is resonating with younger voters, urban liberals, women and many on social media.

However, there were moments when she failed to resonate even with a sympathetic crowd, such as when she was unable to state a clear position on Shelly Bay. I didn’t necessarily agree with Eagle’s position, but he gave a clear response and backed it up with strong arguments, as did Foster with his contrary position.

So who will win? Foster has ground to make up, but I ruled him out last time and will not make that mistake again. For Boomers worried about intensification, who blame council dysfunction on Labour and the Greens, who think that the Johnsonville mass transit line is not a mass transit line, then Andy is your man.

Although Foster lies to the right of Eagle and Whanau, it’s not that far right. At the debate I attended, there was little argument between the candidates on supporting the arts and te reo Māori, and the need for decent and reliable public transport.

Eagle hasn’t had the dream run some predicted, with an early billboard stoush and people grumpy about his broken promise to rule out running for mayor, as well as the cost of a parliamentary by-election should he win. However, Eagle’s council experience works well as he knows the territory and he showed this at the debate. But it also counts against him as, like Foster, he was there when some decisions that got us into our present mess were made.

On policy, Foster has always had a superb recall of detail and Eagle showed considerable knowledge about a variety of council topics. Even though I have probably met Eagle more times at the Newtown McDonald’s than the theatre, his detailed knowledge of the challenges artists face – council-controlled venues that are forced to charge massive rentals to local arts groups – was impressive and made the opinions of the other candidates sound platitudinous.

When you get a three-way race in STV, things get interesting. At the debate I attended, Whanau and Eagle formed a mutual admiration society and endorsed each other as second choice, although Whanau also pointed out the many good qualities that she believed Mātua Andy possessed.

Foster endorsed Whanau as his second choice, but failed to endorse anyone at the Stuff debate. I suspect most Whanau voters will give Eagle their second choice, provided he plays nice, and most Foster voters will see Eagle as “safer”. If Eagle comes third, I suspect most of his voters will give Whanau their second choice.

It’s been a very good week for Whanau – who I would have placed third at the beginning of the campaign – and a not-so-good week for the arguing sixth form boys. But the mayoral campaign is a marathon not a sprint.

If Whanau can continue to be calm and conciliatory, and responds well to policy questions, she could ram home her current advantage. If Foster can continue to focus on his achievements and play down the early dysfunction of his term, he can’t be ruled out. Eagle, as the centrist candidate, needs to shore up support on the left as well as right, and not make the same mistake as former mayor Justin Lester, who was so busy appeasing the business community that he neglected his core constituency. Stay tuned.