Why NZ’s capital is slipping down city rankings

Saturday, 2 March 2024

• Wellington is no longer considered New Zealand’s second city in size.

• Its status as capital doesn’t count in official city rankings.

• Christchurch is rising up the league table, and Wellington is poised to fall even further.

• What do you think? Tell us in the comments below.

The nation’s capital may hold a world cup for windiest, but when it comes to Aotearoa’s cities, Wellington has lost its status as New Zealand’s second city, and is predicted to fall even further.

Christchurch, not Wellington, is now deputy to New Zealand’s supercity, Auckland, and rising according to latest data from Statistics New Zealand.

Wellington is not even likely to hold on to the bronze, with Hamilton and Tauranga hot on its heels, and Hamilton predicted to overtake Wellington in 20 to 30 years, say economists.

With Wellington being the country’s capital, Wellingtonians might claim second city status on that alone.

That doesn’t faze Christchurch mayor Phil Mauger.

“It doesn’t surprise me that Wellington has this notion – but like our neighbours, we wish Wellington would realise that there is a whole other island that makes up this country.

“Christchurch is the best place in New Zealand right now to work, live, play and invest.”

Christchurch has, “Relatively affordable housing … we’re not boxed in like Wellington … that’s not to mention Christchurch’s place as a sporting capital – there’s not much that tops the record of the Crusaders.“

Oh yes there is, says Wellington mayor, Tory Whanau.

“Last I checked they don’t have a professional football team, whereas our Phoenix are currently No.1 in the A-League.”

Asked whether the capital has an issue with being bumped to third place, Whanau declared a friendly rivalry.

“Damn straight we’ve got a beef with Christchurch. No, in all seriousness, it’s great to see Christchurch back on its feet after the earthquakes. I get along well with Mayor Phil Mauger and we often chat.”

Despite this apparent truce, Wellington has a roll call of number one hits.

Wellington is the “creative capital” of the country, Whanau says, with an “unbroken 23-year-old record as the most creative city in Aotearoa according to the Infometrics Creativity Index.”

If you are a bird, Wellington is the place to be.

“We’re the top city for nature. Where else can you hear the call of a kiwi, just 10 minutes from the CBD? … No native birds are seriously at risk in the capital anymore, and regionally bird numbers are soaring sky high.”

Wellington is one of the top cities in the world for sustainable travel, according to Lonely Planet.

Wellington is also more on trend than its southern rival.

“We’re the most modern city in New Zealand,” she says.

Christchurch has Richie McCaw, but Wellington has one of the biggest names in Hollywood, James Cameron.

Famous for the highest-earning movies of all time about a sinking ship (Titanic) and the perils of colonialism (Avatar series), Cameron loves the city so much that he’s applying for citizenship.

Wellingtonians can take comfort that their city was once dubbed the world’s coolest capital, despite the fact it’s also been called one of the most inhospitable cities on the planet in topography and climate.

It may still be cool, but it’s also making headlines for being woke, waterless and going broke.

While Wellingtonians grieve restaurant closures, and a government employee complains he has to buy his own coffee, Christchurch has not only rebuilt from its horror 2011 earthquake, but is flourishing.

“Our economy is diversified and provides a wider range of opportunities for people to work or start their own business. We have big brand retailers vying for space in the central city and new hospitality, bars and eateries opening pretty much on a weekly basis,” says Mauger.

Wellington City is winning in some areas that it may not want to: it is one of the most expensive cities in the country to rent, and its house prices have dropped more than any other city – declining 20.1% since the peak of January 2022.

Christchurch City has 396,200 people, compared to Wellington City’s 216,200 - both still a long way off top dog Auckland, which has 1.7 million people.

“Based on this data, Christchurch is larger and growing faster,” says a spokesperson for Stats NZ.

In the past, it was Wellington which had the biggest urban population in the country after Auckland.

Or did it?

Senior economist at Infometrics Nick Brunsdon says it’s all about how it’s calculated.

“There are a few different ways to measure cities, which muddies the picture,” he says.

Until the end of 2017, Stats NZ rolled the populations of Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Porirua into Wellington’s, which resulted in a total higher than Christchurch.

Now, Statistics NZ considers Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Porirua as distinct cities in their own right, which, combined with Christchurch’s growth, places Wellington third.

If size is a competition, Wellingtonians might have beef with the logic of the current boundaries.

For example, one part of Turriff Crescent in Tawa is in Wellington City and the other part is in Porirua City.

Defining an urban area irrespective of city or district boundaries can be problematic, says Brunsdon.

“The big downside is that it’s more subjective, and can change over time.”

When large numbers of people commute across city or district boundaries, it’s often considered one big urban area, he says.

By this approach, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt, Porirua and Kāpiti Coast would count as part of Wellington, moving Wellington up the table.

Stay in your lane, Wellington - even that will not move it into third place, explains Brunsdon.

“If those areas are added to the capital, then by the same logic, Rolleston and Rangiora should be counted as part of Christchurch.”

As cities spread, measuring this way can be “murky”.

“Do you include Amberley in Christchurch, or Masterton in Wellington? You probably wouldn’t count Levin as part of Wellington today, but you might in 10 years’ time as Levin grows and transport into Wellington improves,” he says.

Debating definitions might have kept Wellington’s number two status before, but not any more.

Latest figures show silver clearly goes to Christchurch, in all ways of measuring it.

“If we define Wellington as Wellington City, Porirua City, Lower Hutt City and Upper Hutt City, that gives a population of 440,900 in 2023, compared to Christchurch City’s 396,200.

“To be fair to Christchurch, if we’re counting those extra areas in Wellington, we should count Selwyn and Waimakariri Districts for Christchurch. That gives us a population for Christchurch of 546,500 in 2023.“

Even adding Kāpiti Coast District to Wellington, which brings Wellington up to 499,300, Christchurch would be still in the lead, about 47,000 ahead of Wellington.

“It would be hard to stretch the figures to call Wellington number two,” said Brunsdon.

Is bigger actually better?

Could Wellington make a claim for second city status using economic, rather than population, measurements?

'Wellington is slightly bigger than Canterbury when measured by GDP, but smaller based on population and employment,” says ASB economist Chris Tennent-Brown.

Looking at how each region contributes to GDP (the main measure for an economy’s output and financial health), Wellington contributes 12.5%, slightly more than Canterbury’s 12.2%, but both a long way off Auckland, which is balling at 37.8%.

Wellington City has a similar GDP to Christchurch City – both $31.6b in 2023 – despite having a smaller population.

On a regional basis, the Wellington Region economy of $50.2b is larger than Canterbury Region’s $46.7m – again, despite a smaller population.

This doesn’t mean that Wellingtonians are more dedicated to the hustle than southerners, says Brunsdon.

“This isn’t about how hardworking people are - it reflects the nature of the industries in each area. In Wellington, there are lots of high-value jobs in government, professional services and corporate headquarters … we should remember that taxes and export returns from Canterbury businesses help fund many of the jobs in Wellington, especially the public sector.”

In a cost of living crisis, Christchurch is relatively cheaper to live in than Auckland and Wellington, yet still has the big-city benefits of an international airport, job opportunities and amenities.

Wellington is the most expensive of the three cities, says Trade Me property sales director Gavin Lloyd.

Median rent in Christchurch city is $560 a week, compared to Auckland City of $650, and Wellington at $715, according to latest Trade Me figures.

Wellington’s house prices have dropped more than any other city, declining 20.1% since the peak of January 2022, according to CoreLogic.

“On some affordability measures, Wellington actually looks a bit better than Christchurch now – due to the capital’s high incomes. But compared to both Auckland and Wellington, you would tend to get a ‘better’ property in Christchurch, whether that be size, type or age,” says CoreLogic’s economist, Kelvin Davidson.

With one in three Wellingtonians employed by the government facing $600m of cuts likely to further impact property, an economic argument, just like the size debate, still doesn’t make it the second city.