November's about to get hotter, and there's still no rain in sight

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

MetService National Forecast November 21.

The country is set to swelter into December, as the sun beats down and the skies stay pretty much clear of any rain.

So far, the town of Lincoln, near Christchurch, has recorded 0.4 millimetres of rain this month.

If things continue like that, it'll be the driest November – and one of the driest months overall – for the area since records began in 1881, NIWA says.

The centre map shows rainfall anomaly for New Zealand during November. The 'hotter' the colour, the less rainfall than normal.

And in Hastings, a 39-day dry spell ended on Monday night.

Lincoln and Hastings are not alone though. The majority of North and South Canterbury have had much less rain in November than usual, and so have the Kapiti, Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay regions.

This soil moisture anomaly map shows much of the country's soil is drier than usual at this time of year.

* Warmer summer than usual for most of the country, thanks to La Nina**

Forecasters say the weather will also be warmer than usual in many places from Thursday, with the MetService predicting it'll get as high as 29 degrees Celsius in Otago towns including Alexandra and Cromwell.

Along with the large areas that are warmer and drier than usual, the vast majority of the South Island – and a large portion of the North Island – has drier soil than normal, too.

NIWA's Chris Brandolino said the organisation expected the long period of dry weather to continue over the weekend and into next week and even the following weekend.

'Now, we're not say there will be zero rain,' Brandolino said.

'There will be some areas that get a few showers and maybe even the odd downpour here and there but nothing widespread and meaningful will fall across New Zealand over the next 10 to 14 days.'

As a result, the soil across the country would get drier and could become and issue for the agricultural sector, he said.

So far during November, Lincoln (near #Christchurch) has recorded JUST 0.4 mm of rain 🌵

It's tracking for the driest November & one of the driest months overall on record since records began way back in 1881 🕰️ #climate pic.twitter.com/eQhYMucNXb

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) November 20, 2017

In Canterbury, high air pressure caused the lack of rainfall.

'I would imagine . . . that the wind direction hasn't favoured rainfall – which is something that comes from the east,' Brandolino said.

'In order to get rain in Christchurch and the east side of the [south] island we need to have the air coming of the water.'

It comes as MetService is predicting settled weather until December and temperatures up to 28C in some areas this week.

NIWA would release a synopsis of what drove the weather at the end of the month.