The generation war: Is it simply a political tool to stop us caring about each other?

Thursday, 9 March 2017

You might think baby boomers are to blame for all the problems today, but the situation is much more complex than that.

ANALYSIS: Some prefer to blame another generation for issues like hot house prices and rising student debt but economics has a lot to do with the state of things.

The main gripes aired in current inter-generational debates are around rising house prices and declining home ownership, growing student debt and now, the rising age of superannuation.

Millennials have become resentful because they feel they've been locked out of the housing market, while baby boomers say things weren't so easy in their day either.

We take a look at the economic and political factors that have led to the current situation.

HOUSING

The Kiwi home ownership dream is seeming further and further away for young New Zealanders.

New Zealand Initiative head of research Dr Eric Crampton said housing was possibly the greatest cause of concern between generations.

Home ownership in the younger generation is declining, as house prices rise.

Statistics New Zealand figures show home ownership is at its lowest in 66 years. Nationwide, 63.2 per cent of people live in their own home.

Crampton said home ownership rates were much higher among older people and the typical critique was baby boomers were taking up all the houses.

The national average house price reached $631,349 in February, according to QV. Auckland's average was sitting at $1,043,680.

Millennials say it's impossible to buy a house with prices this high.

Economist Shamubeel Eaqub said if you wanted to buy a house at 21 in the current market, you'd need to 'give up everything, forever'.

When boomers bought prices were lower but a period of high inflation pushed mortgage rates as high as 20 per cent in the 80s, compared to about 5 per cent now.

Boomers argue high interest rates made it hard for them to buy; their repayments were a big burden and some of them were mortgaged out of the market.

Migration also factors into the house price debate.

The population is booming thanks largely to a big increase in net migration (permanent arrivals minus permanent departures) in recent years.

Annual net migration rose to 71,305 in the 12 months ended January 31, eclipsing the record 70,600 set in 2016, according to Statistics New Zealand.

People arriving as permanent and long-term migrants outnumbered those departing by 128,290 to 56,985 in the latest 12 months - also an all-time high.

While there is a link, or correlation, between increased migration and rising house prices, researchers say increased immigration doesn't necessarily cause house price rises.

A study by public policy research company Motu found returning New Zealanders were the migrant group most strongly connected with house price growth, rather than new immigrants.

Returning New Zealanders were most likely to fall in the 25-64 age bracket and work full-time, making them more likely to own homes than other migrant groups.

And a 2016 government-commissioned study also found migrants had a relatively small impact on Auckland house prices.

Meanwhile, just 3 per cent of home buyers between January and March 2016 had overseas tax residency.

New Zealand Initiative's Crampton said he believed the main reason for rising house prices was a lack of foresight in urban planning.

Boomers had stopped the densification of housing in desirable suburbs. And a 'misplaced' environmental concern had seen them oppose urban sprawl, he said.

If councils tried to change plans to allow for the likes of terraced housing, apartments and townhouses, they were 'yelled at by a sea of grey heads in planning committee meetings'.

To add to the troubles, public infrastructure planning and funding was inadequate. This meant council would have to fork out for new roads, public transport and amenities to support more dwellings.

Crampton said the Boomers locked themselves in early when New Zealand allowed people to build, then locked others out.

'It's a very legitimate gripe. Especially when most of this restrictiveness in planning is coming out of boomers,' he said.

STUDENT DEBT

New Zealand student loan debt has continued to grow in recent years. In 2016, the average loan per person was $14,904, up from $10,833 in 2008.

That's a total of $15.3 billion in debt.

That debt is stopping some young people buying homes and millennials often use their parents' free university education as ammunition in inter-generational debates.

While baby boomers did received free education, fewer people went to university, making this a more sustainable model than it would be today.

Once the boomers graduated they were looking at paying up to 66 per cent tax, rather than today's top tax bracket of 33 per cent.

So rather than losing 12 cents in the dollar - the amount automatically taken from salaries to pay back student loans - they were losing much more of their paycheque.

Through the 60s and 70s Robert Muldoon, as finance minister and prime minister, didn't favour indirect taxes and instead stuck with the model of high income tax.

This was reformed in the 80s, dropping the top tax rate and introducing more indirect taxes like GST.

Crampton said despite what millennials might say, baby boomers had 'a pretty terrible deal' when it came to education.

While the younger generation was taking on a lot of debt, it was serviceable and interest-free.

And the government still picks up the majority of the bill - students are only charged 18 per cent of the total cost of education.

'I think the boomers have been taking stick undeservedly,' he said.

SUPERANNUATION

Superannuation is the most recent fuel added to the fire.

Bill English has announced the Super age will be lifted from 65 to 67, being phased in between 2037 and 2040.

The move makes economic sense considering Super is currently the equivalent of 4.8 per cent of GDP but would grow to 7.9 per cent by 2040 if the age of eligibility wasn't changed.

As the population grows and life-expectancies lengthen, Super is costing the government more.

The Retirement Commissioner said the number of people aged 65 and over would double in the next 30 years to 1.4 million, and the net actual cost of NZ Super triple in the next 20 years from $11 billion to $36b.

The sticking point with young New Zealanders is the changes to Super will not affect the boomers.

Crampton said Super at 65 was never a sustainable system so young people shouldn't have been counting on it anyway.

But it wasn't 'equitable' the Boomers would be exempt from the changes due to the long lead-in period.

On the other hand, you had to give people sufficient warning to adequately save for retirement.

LACK OF EQUITY

Sociologists say it's important to not over-simplify the experiences of the generations.

University of Auckland professor of sociology Alan France said it was dangerous to put people into boxes.

'There are massive patches of inequality in all generations and between the generations.'

All parents wanted to help their children but some were in a better financial position to do that than others.

Looking at it in a simplistic way could distract from the real issues and would end up pitting one group against another, Crampton said.

'Politics and policy has given far too much attention to those who put them back in power.'

In doing that, politicians had lost touch with issues that plagued the younger generation, he said.

Canterbury University social scientist Bronwyn Hayward said this waring between generations was often a tool used by politicians.

It was important not to fuel that war and gloss over the fact that women, Maori and the less-privileged were often the ones who were really missing out - in every generation.