New Whakaari eruption monitoring system 'a great assistant' with a perfect memory
Wednesday, 14 September 2022
It’s always watching, has a perfect memory and will to help warn of likely eruptions on Whakaari/White Island.
A new automated system detects patterns in seismic data and constant monitoring in real time enables it to provide warnings hours or days before an eruption.
Volcanologists and engineers tested the system operationally for two years and it compared well against the existing system that was based on the opinions of expert volcanologists, a University of Canterbury statement said.
“We hope that this can help volcanologists as they grapple with the tricky job of determining the odds of an eruption,” civil and natural resources engineering senior lecturer and lead researcher Dr David Dempsey said.
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He said active volcanoes often attracted tourists, but the safety of access depended partly on how accurately volcanologists could estimate the probability of an eruption.
“If an eruption is more likely, then access can be restricted. Our system provides information for decision-makers as they weigh those choices.
“It is also fast, always watching, and has perfect memory of the past, which makes it a great assistant for human operators.”
The testing and accuracy of the system was a project between the University of Canterbury and the University of Auckland.
One probability model developed by Dempsey and his team was a warning system that would anticipate six out of seven eruptions at the cost of 14 warning days each year.
During a warning, the chance of an eruption is about 8% in 48 hours, which is more than 100 times higher than normal.
A second and more sensitive model estimated eruption odds at 400 times higher than normal when it was shown the 48 hours of data from just before the December 2019 eruption on Whakaari.
“Alongside our operational tests, these retrospective analyses – replaying a model on the past – are the best way to understand how systems like these might work in future eruptions,” Dempsey said.
The system had been on hiatus since early August when GNS Science monitoring equipment on Whakaari stopped operating because it could not be reached for maintenance.