Births, deaths rising in year to June, population growth slowest since 1986

Tuesday, 16 August 2022

Isabelle May Broadfoot was born on March 23, 2022 at her parents' hotel in the tiny South Canterbury rural settlement of Kimbell. She was among 60,000 babies born in New Zealand in the year to June.

The number of deaths in New Zealand increased by more than 3200, to 36,762, in the year to June, data published by Stats NZ on Tuesday shows.

Births were up by nearly 2300 to 60,009 – the highest number in the past four years, and the second highest in the past decade.

New Zealand’s population grew by just 12,700, or 0.2%, in the year to June, to reach an estimated 5.12m at June 30. That was the lowest annual growth rate since June 1986.

The 9.7% increase in deaths in the June 2022 year was higher than the average annual increase over the previous decade of 1.4%, Stats NZ said.

* Why Covid-19 vaccination targets are complicated by how you count people

New Zealand’s population grew at its slowest rate since 1986 in the year to June. That was partly because the number of people leaving the country was 11,500 more than the number arriving her to live.

* Births driving New Zealand population growth for the first time since 2013

“The latest increase partly reflects an ageing population – there are increasing numbers and proportions of the population in older ages, where most deaths occur. However, there were also higher death rates at older ages in March to June 2022.”

The Stats NZ release doesn’t mention Covid, but the number of deaths attributed to the virus has risen sharply from about early to mid-March.

The 36,726 deaths in the year to June 2022 was more than 3200 higher than the number a year earlier.

That rise happened as the country moved from a “stamp it out” approach to Covid, to one aimed at slowing the spread and protecting vulnerable communities. It was also around the same time as the early stages of the easing of international travel restrictions.

Latest Ministry of Health data to 1pm Monday shows 2509 people in New Zealand have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test, with the deaths of 1750 people attributed to Covid.

Data on the Stats NZ website also shows that the week to July 31 was the deadliest in New Zealand since at least 2011. The data, which Stats NZ notes is provisional, shows 903 deaths in the last week of July – the last week for which figures are available.

The number of deaths topped 750 weekly for the last dozen weeks included in the data. In contrast, it was above 750 for six weeks in the winter of 2021, and deaths did not top 700 in any week in 2020.

In 2019, deaths topped 750 during three weeks – again all in winter. The number of deaths didn’t get to 750 in any weeks in 2018, but did get above that level for four consecutive weeks in winter 2017.

The rise in births in the June year took the fertility rate to 1.69 births per woman, up from 1.61 a year earlier. The latest rate remains the third lowest since 1977, when it was 2.26.

The low level of population growth was partly due to an estimated 11,500 more people leaving the country than arrived in the year to June, Stats NZ said.

Among broad age groups, the population aged 65 years and over was the fastest growing, with an annual increase of 2.8% or 22,800 people, mostly due to people born in the mid-1950s turning 65.

In contrast, the number of people aged 15–39 years shrank by 0.5%, or 8700 people, mainly due to population loss from migration, as well as more people moving out of this age group (to older ages) than moving into this age group (from younger ages).