'A summer of two-halves': Hot and dry weather set to linger until a new year's change

Friday, 29 November 2019

Niwa's Chris Brandolino and Ben Noll give an update on what to expect this summer.

The country has had some scorching days already with record temperatures, and summer hasn't officially even started yet.

November is shaping up to be a hot month, and possibly among the warmest on record, Niwa says.

Those warm temperatures and dry soil conditions have already helped spark fire restrictions in some areas.

But forecasters say it's possibly going to be 'a summer of two-halves' with changing winds bringing wet conditions for some in the second-half of the season.

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Here's a look at our warm weather so far, and what we're in store for this summer:

The first few weeks of summer are looking to be warm, with possibly above average temperatures for those on the east coast.

A RECORD MONTH?

Niwa meteorologist Seth Carrier agrees this November 'has been a very warm month'.

Although the numbers haven't yet been finalised, this month is 'probably going to be one of the warmest Novembers on record for New Zealand, going back to 1909 when records began', he said.

New Zealand is already seeing some dry spots ahead of the summer period.

The eastern areas of both islands have had some hot days, including the Hawke's Bay, the Wairarapa and much of Canterbury.

Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin have all had a warmer November this year than in 2018.

There's been a decent change in dry areas around the country in the past two weeks.

Christchurch in particular has seen warmer days with a mean temperature of 22C this month compared to a mean of 18.4C in November last year.

The warmer than average days are largely due to the warm northwesterly winds travelling across the Tasman Sea from the Australian bushfires.

Carrier said warmer sea temperatures around the country also helped warm the air temperature.

Beaches like Corsair Bay will be packed this summer - hotter than usual temperatures are predicted.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said the past two weeks especially had been warm for a lot of the country, not just the eastern areas which are usually affected.

Northwesterly winds have also brought smoke and dust from the fires across the Tasman, causing hazy skies here.

But the west coasts of both islands have still had some rain this month thanks to westerly winds.

For the next week and a half, temperatures across the country are also expected to mostly stay above 20C, forecasters say.

THE SUMMER AHEAD

The majority of the country, excluding the West Coast on the South Island, will likely see above average temperatures for the summer, Carrier said.

This is largely to do with the current warm sea temperatures, which are likely to remain above average for the summer period.

'If we have more warm water temperatures around the country, we're more likely to see warm air temperatures as well.'

However it's not going to be a straightforward scorcher of a summer for the whole country.

Niwa's principal scientist Chris Brandolino called it a possible 'summer of two-halves', thanks to some changing weather patterns expected halfway through the summer period.

'What we see early in the summer might differ from what we see later in the summer,' Carrier said.

For the start of summer, westerly winds will continue to bring wet conditions for the western parts of the country. While the eastern side of the country will have drier conditions, especially in the first few weeks of summer.

But halfway through the summer period, there could be a shift in wind direction.

'With more of a northeasterly windflow… we'd be most likely to see a little bit more rainfall in those places that were drier earlier in the summer.'

South Canterbury has had some previous dry summers. But some wet weather could be on the cards in the second half of the summer period.

So Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, and even Canterbury could see more rainfall in the second half of summer. While the West Coast may see some finer weather.

'That could also lead to some drier conditions for the western portions of both islands. So we could see a bit of a shift in who gets rain and who stays drier as the summer progresses.'

Carrier said most people in New Zealand are going to have at least a portion of a nice summer, 'where it's warm and pretty dry and it'll be good for outdoor activities and going to the beach'.

'But the places that maybe start out with a nicer summer, later in the summer things might be a little bit cooler, maybe a little bit rainier.'

DRY AREAS ALREADY

In terms of soil moisture, Carrier said that generally speaking, things are drier this November than they were this time last year.

In the South Island, things are looking pretty good for this time of the year. But in the North Island, it's definitely starting to get drier.

The Coromandel, northern Waikato areas, and all the way up to Northland are starting to see dry soils already, he said. While southern Hawke's Bay and the Wairarapa are also quite dry for this time of year.

'Those two areas, the south eastern portion of the North Island and the upper North Island at the moment are seeing the driest soils in the entire country.'

But soil moisture can change relatively quickly, Carrier said. Although it's dry in some places now, it's not indicative of how the whole summer will play out, especially with changes in rainfall.

FIRE RESTRICTIONS

A restricted season across greater Auckland will be declared on Monday December 2, Fire and Emergency announced on Friday.

A prohibited fire season across all the islands of the Hauraki Gulf will also be declared on Monday. A prohibited season means a total fire ban, with any current fire permits for the area suspended from the date the prohibited season starts.

A restricted fire season means any open-air fires will need a permit.

WATER RESTRICTIONS

Restrictions around water use are already in place in Napier. The city council has put sprinklers and hoses under restrictions, which can currently only be used between 6am and 8am, and 7pm and 9pm.

Even numbered houses can use their hoses on even days of the month, while odd numbered houses can use them on the odd days.

The same water restrictions are also in place for Wellington, Porirua and Lower Hutt. In Upper Hutt, they're in effect year-round.