Northland's dramatic population growth disputed

Monday, 23 September 2019

Accessible natural beauty is one reason Northland's population is growing - though possibly not as fast as the latest census figures suggest.

Northland's economic development agency disputes new census figures suggesting Northland is the country's fastest growing region.

Statistics New Zealand numbers showed Northland's population jumped by 18 per cent between 2013 and 2018, increasing by more than 27,300 people to reach a total of 179,000. New Zealand's average population growth for the period was 11 per cent.

Vaughan Cooper, acting CEO of Northland Inc., disputes Statistics NZ's starting point for the region's population growth.

But acting CEO of Northland Inc. Vaughan Cooper said his agency's data pinned the 2013 starting figure at about 164,000 – significantly more than Stats NZ's 151,700.

'The census results were a surprise to me,' said Cooper. 'Yes, we've had growth. But I'm not convinced we've had this much growth.'

* Census 2018: New Zealand to gain one new seat in 2020 election**

Cooper said while the discrepancy was odd, it wasn't especially problematic 'because we all agree on what we've got currently'.

He said Northland Inc. got its figures from economics consultancy Infometrics.

A population jump of 15,000, about nine per cent, was still significantly more than the two per cent increase between 2006 and 2013, as reported in the last census.

Northland's district and regional councils have highlighted rapid growth as a challenge for new councillors on the other side of local body elections, currently underway.

According to the census, Kaipara's population went up the most – 21 per cent – followed by Whangarei at 18 per cent, then the Far North at 17 per cent.

Spokesman for Kaipara District Council Ben Hope said growth had 'definitely been pretty big'.

The council processed around 750 consents and 355 resource consents over the last three years, he noted. That was just 50 less resource consents than Whangarei, despite Kaipara being a quarter of Whangarei's size.

Hope said there were 'positives and negatives to being so popular'.

New people brought innovation and fresh opportunities for the district, but the council had to be mindful of preserving the Kaipara Harbour for future generations.

Proximity to Auckland and improved motorways drove the growth, said Hope.

Whangarei District Council's chief executive Rob Furlong said his council had been planning for the district's growth, and was 'in a strong financial position' to cope with it.

'The population increase is requiring more infrastructure, and we have responded by lifting our annual capital budget from $49 million six years ago to $85 million last year.'

Furlong cited Whangarei's relatively low house prices, lack of traffic congestion, 'consistently improving economy', and plentiful pristine nature as drawcards.

The economically beleaguered Far North District's population decreased by 110 people between 2006 and 2013 – due to the Global Financial Crisis, said a council spokesman – but grew by 9500 between 2013 and 2018, according to census data.

He said the growth was the 'halo effect' of Auckland's unaffordable housing, and evident by an increase on applications for building consents.

The Far North District Council's general manager for strategic planning and policy Darrell Sargent said the growing population was a complex issue to tackle.

'[It] increases demand for goods and services, boosting spending and employment within the district. We welcome that,' he said.

'However, providing affordable infrastructure for a growing population across a large district with more than 40 towns and villages remains our greatest challenge.'