Grab your jandals and get set for a scorching November

Thursday, 1 November 2018

Niwa's climate outlook for November to January says a very warm start to November is expected.

The next three months are likely to be warmer than average, and it'll kick off with temperatures next week that could hit 30 degrees Celsius or higher.

Niwa released its climate summary for November to January on Thursday, and if you like it hot, it's looking good.

In the next 10 days, you can expect warmer than average temperatures - and that'll be the first round of warmer temperatures.

The air temperature for the whole country is likely to be average or above average for all of New Zealand in November, December and January.

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius or above were possible in some places.

'That's just one round … that could come in several rounds, not just one, as we go through the first three weeks of November.'

On the other hand, if you're a farmer, it might not be so sharp - rainfall over the whole country is expected to be average or below average.

September and October were drier than normal, and that trend is expected to continue for the next three months.

Rainfall for the next three months is likely to be normal or below normal for the whole country.

Big areas of high pressure pushing across the Tasman Sea and New Zealand will produce a few weak fronts, but not many.

El Nino is almost here, with an 88 per cent chance of it developing over the next three months.

Niwa's meteorologist Ben Noll and principal scientist Chris Brandolino.

It's also likely to be a windier three months than usual.

The atmospheric circulation around New Zealand for the next three months is forecast to be characterised by higher pressure than normal around the country and lower pressure than normal to the southwest.

The circulation pattern is expected to be associated with above average or near average temperatures for New Zealand, including several very warm spells during November.

Meanwhile, above average or near average sea surface temperatures are expected in coastal waters during the next three months.

NIWA's Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook indicates that the risk for New Zealand is near normal.

On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550 kilometres of New Zealand each year.

AIR TEMPERATURE:

For the next three months, temperatures are forecast to be above average (40-45 per cent chance) or near average (40 per cent chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall totals are forecast to be below normal (35-40 per cent chance) or near normal (35-40 per cent) for all regions of New Zealand except for the west of the South Island where near normal rainfall is most likely (45 per cent chance).

SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER FLOW:

Soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be near normal (45 per cent chance) or below normal (40 per cent) for the North Island and north of the South Island.

For the west of the South Island, near normal (55 per cent chance) soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast.

For the east of the South Island, below normal (50 per cent chance) soil moisture levels are river flows are forecast.