Cyclone Hola: What you need to know
Thursday, 8 March 2018
The first downpours associated with former tropical cyclone Hola were recorded about 1am Monday at Cape Reinga in the Far North, and gusts of over 110kmh were felt during the morning.
Hola is the third ex-tropical cyclone to affect New Zealand in the past six weeks, but unlike Fehi and Gita its centre will not be passing over the country.
So what do we need to know?
Hola was downgraded to a category 1 cyclone on Saturday, and at 7pm Sunday was reclassified as an extra-tropical low.
At lunchtime on Monday, MetService said the centre of the low was still to the northeast of Cape Reinga, and moving to the southeast. By 7pm it was expected to be about 250km east northeast of Auckland.
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'We're getting rain moving down over Northland and Auckland with some heavy falls starting to move now down into Coromandel and northern Waikato,' MetService meteorologist Brian Mercer said at 12.30pm Monday.
'We currently have quite strong southeasterlies up through the northern part of the North Island. Later this afternoon or into the evening that's when we're going to get southwesterlies. Likely those are going to be the strongest winds, especially through the Auckland area.'
The strongest winds and heaviest rain associated with Hola are expected to remain offshore, MetService said.
The heaviest rain onshore was expected over Northland from 9am, Coromandel Peninsula from 11am and Gisborne from 3pm. Other areas that could get some heavy rain were Auckland from 11am, Waikato, western Bay of Plenty and the eastern ranges from 1pm, and northern Hawke's Bay from 4pm.
Gusts to 120kmh were forecast for exposed areas of Northland from 9am, 110kmh for Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula - particularly about Great Barrier Island - from 3pm, 120kmh in Bay of Plenty and Rotorua from 6pm, and 120kmh in Gisborne from 7pm. Gales were also possible in Waikato from 6pm, and Taupo and Northern Hawke's Bay from 7pm.
The low's centre is tracking to the east of the country, following a path roughly the same shape as the coastline, MetService said, although it would get closer to East Cape than Cape Reinga.
The low would pass East Cape overnight, and on Tuesday would be moving away to the east.
#CycloneHola was slow moving this morning, but will move rapidly past NZ today and tonight, with a helpful shove from a jet stream. ^TA pic.twitter.com/aOHTqZyMTA
— MetService (@MetService) March 12, 2018
Civil Defence Waikato said large waves were predicted for Coromandel around high tide, which was from 4-4.20pm, and people around the coast were advised to watch out for overtopping and inundation.
Gisborne's Tairawhiti Civil Defence Emergency Management said severe wind gusts were forecast for the region from 7pm, particularly north of Tolaga Bay. High tide around 3.30am Tuesday could bring storm surges and wave run-ups into rivers, estuaries and drains, as river levels peaked around the same time.
Why are we seeing so many cyclones?
This is the third cyclone to venture towards New Zealand since February.
Niwa meteorologist Seth Carrier said this is unusual, and it's caused by a 'perfect storm of weather features' this year. They've dragged weather masses from the subtropics and the tropics towards New Zealand.
In an average November to April tropical cyclone season, Carrier said one or two ex-tropical cyclones typically passed within 550 kilometres of Auckland.
However, MetService meteorologist Brian Mercer doesn't find the frequency of ex-cyclones particularly unusual.
'It's very hard to say 'normal' when discussing tropical cyclones because they're quite difficult to forecast for,' he said.