State of Emergency: Is New Zealand prepared for the worst?

Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Takaka Hill and Riwaka are soaked and damaged by ex-cyclone Gita.

Seven New Zealand councils declared states of emergency this week amid fears former Cyclone Gita would cause widespread destruction, as the fierce storm swooped towards the country.

Some residents were expecting the worst, only to find they had avoided the brunt of the storm. So were the councils too hasty with their declarations? Was Gita a media beat-up? Or was the emergency response needed?

WHAT EXACTLY DOES A STATE OF EMERGENCY INVOLVE?

Christchurch 'dodged a bullet' but the Heathcote River still caused some problems.

A state of emergency is a situation where authorities make a declaration to give themselves emergency powers. These include: Closing or restricting access to roads or public places, conserving essential supplies, carrying out evacuations, and requisitioning equipment, materials and assistance.

A state of local emergency can be declared by local authority delegated representatives, mayors or the minister of civil defence. The minister can also declare a state of national emergency.

An image that sums up the damage wreaked by former cyclone Gita. A massive slip on State Highway 60 - the Takaka Hill Road - will take days to fix.

**READ MORE:

Residents beside Shaggery Creek were swamped on Tuesday by ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita's heavy rain.

* Gita: Massive task ahead to re-open slip-damaged Takaka Hill highway

* Christchurch homes largely escape flooding in the wake of ex-Cyclone Gita

* Taranaki remains in state of emergency as storm leaves thousands without power

* Cyclone Gita closes roads across the South Island**

Declared emergencies have a maximum duration of seven days. They may be extended for up to another seven days or terminated at any time.

As former cyclone Gita approached the country on Tuesday, states of emergency were declared in Taranaki region, Nelson Tasman region, Selwyn district, Grey district, Buller district, Westland district, and Christchurch city.

STATES OF EMERGENCY 'INCONSISTENCIES'

A ministerial review said last year declaring an event, or potential event, a state of emergency was a key part of the emergency management system.

The review by a technical advisory group was set up in June 2017 and the findings were published last month, in a report titled Better Responses to Natural Disasters and other Emergencies in New Zealand.

Its terms of reference referred to the August 2016 Hawke's Bay gastroenteritis outbreak, the September 2016 East Cape earthquake and tsunami, the November 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake and the February 2017 Port Hills fire.

The review found inconsistencies in the declaration of states of emergency.

'Different factors are prioritised in different cases. Occasionally there is strong media and public debate about what should have happened. Following extensive coverage and increased discussion about civil defence emergencies in 2017 we note a visible shift in the bias – towards declaring states of emergency,' the review said.

'We heard that mayors have been asked to make a decision to declare, or not, when they lack experience and training. This can result in confusion, mistakes and delays.'

Reasons for not declaring had included concern a declaration would signal a failure, such as a lack of readiness or poor preparation, along with there being no evidence emergency services couldn't cope, or no need for the extra powers.

The review recommended there should also be an option to declare a 'major incident', rather than a state of emergency. That would signal the significance of an event and achieve public recognition of the action being taken, without the extraordinary powers invoked under a state of emergency.

Civil Defence Minister Kris Faafoi said the review had cross-party support. Its recommendations would be considered at meetings with local authorities, iwi and other groups.

WERE COUNCILS RASH TO ACT ON GITA?

'For MetService, it's all about people being prepared for the worst so they can protect themselves and their property,' said MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray.

'I think we've done really well in this event. It was a deep and very strong system that came through.'

She said ex-cyclone Gita's central pressure was 'pretty consistent', and did not weaken significantly as it crossed the country.

'The system itself did not change, but it's a dynamic system, and in some areas, as the low's moving around, it will be more intense than others,' she said.

'There's always a range in these events . . . but all the areas that we were predicting would be worst hit were, unfortunately, quite badly hit. There was a lot of damage in Taranaki.'

Port Taranaki was pummelled by 8-metre high waves, and Murray said other areas had rogue waves much higher than that.

A number of different models influenced MetService forecasts, she said.

'There's a number of different things that could happen in the models, in what's called ensembles, and we're taking all that into consideration when we're doing our forecasts. And also our knowledge of New Zealand. There are some forecasters in here who've been here for years and years and seen lots of weather events.'

The meteorologists created the 'best forecast' possible by considering the broad spectrum of potential models, Murray said.

'The information we want to get to the public is the most useful and accurate information to help them prepare for events.'

SOME 'DODGED A BULLET'

Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel announced a state of emergency in the city about 2.45pm on Tuesday, the first area to make the call. The decision was based on the potential impacts of the impending storm, which was due to hit Christchurch over Tuesday night.

In explaining the decision, Dalziel referred to heavy rain that caused flooding in Christchurch in July 2017.

'People will remember what happened in July last year when we had a major storm event, and we didn't call a state of emergency early enough in my view for people to have the time to go out and prepare for what might happen,' Dalziel said on Tuesday. She has also said a state of emergency should have declared earlier for the February 2017 Port Hills fire.

'We always prepare for the worst and hope for the best,' she said ahead of Gita's arrival. 'It's already flooding streets, so it's important that people get the message that if they live in those flood-prone areas around the Heathcote River, they really do need to evacuate.'

This time around, the hope was not misplaced. The council announced at 6.30am on Wednesday that the city appeared to have escaped the worst. Rainfall had been half the amount forecast, and there was little wind.

The state of emergency in Christchurch was lifted at 11am Wednesday. Dalziel said the decision to implement it on Tuesday afternoon was right.

Asked if she would make the same decision ahead of future weather events, she replied: 'I will always take advice before making a call, but given the same sort of forecasts, yes I would.'

Dalziel told the AM Show that Christchurch 'dodged a bullet'.

'But just because you dodge a bullet on occasion, it doesn't mean you're bulletproof,' she said. 'It looks like this time our hope for the best came true.'

Air New Zealand cancelled more than 100 flights on Tuesday for similar reasons to Dalziel's. The flights were from Wellington, Hokitika, Nelson, New Plymouth and Queenstown.

In Wellington all flights were cancelled from 2.45pm. The high winds that were forecast didn't strike until much later.

An Air New Zealand spokesman said information provided on Tuesday morning suggested flights would not be able to operate within safety parameters.

'The safety and security of our customers and staff are paramount and non-negotiable . . . Disrupted customers who are still wishing to travel are being accommodated on alternate services.'