Cyclone Gita will be 'a significant storm' when it reaches NZ - MetService

Saturday, 17 February 2018

Model projections of the track Gita will take in the next five or six days, using ECWMF track data.

Cyclone Gita is expected to weaken from a category three to a category two today, but MetService says the remnants will still bring a 'significant storm' to New Zealand early next week.

MetService meteorologist Claire Flynn said on Saturday morning it was still too early to confirm which regions would be worst affected, but the storm would likely pass through central New Zealand.

'It will make its way to New Zealand, but the thing we're a bit uncertain about is where the centre of the cyclone will cross,' she said.

'It's still too early to tell, but it's looking like it will likely go over the lower North Island or the upper South Island.'

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It was still too early to track exactly where the centre of the cyclone will cross, but people can expect heavy rains and severe gales possibly exceeding 120kmh.

The storm was expected to make landfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, but this may still change depending on its current 'speed and track'.

It was expected to cross over the 25th parallel south line within the next 12 to 18 hours, which would shift the responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings from Fiji to New Zealand.

'Currently all the official track maps are the ones on Fiji's website,' Flynn said.

'When it's looking like it's going to cross, we'll get in touch with the Fiji Meteorological Service and start issuing the warnings once it crosses into our area.'

For those who wanted an explanation around the uncertainty associated with the track of #CycloneGita, Senior meteorologist Lisa Murray explains https://t.co/Zvbpj3wC0P #TCGita #CycloneGita newzealand pic.twitter.com/LRSrUrclmm

— MetService (@MetService) February 16, 2018

Flynn said the MetService would have more information about where the storm was tracking on Sunday at the earliest.

But Kiwis should not rest on their laurels all weekend until the storm arrived, she said.

'We do know it's coming to New Zealand, and we do know it's going to be a significant storm when it gets here.

'It's still better to be prepared than to leave it just because you think your region won't be affected, and then it turns out your region is one of the worst affected.'

MetService meteorologist Josh Griffin said the public should prepare by tying down any loose items in yards and keeping up-to-date with weather warnings.

'We will more than likely be having the first watches and warnings associated with it put out tomorrow morning (Sunday).'

Brief flick of big swells passing by southern New Zealand later today, then we await the arrival of Cyclone #Gita and the large seas it will bring. https://t.co/GgW2EUIpBs ^Cam pic.twitter.com/FJT0VYWdEa

— MetService (@MetService) February 16, 2018

On Friday, the Fiji Meteorological Service said Gita was expected to pass to the south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia overnight Friday.

MetService said: 'There remains uncertainty with regards to the speed and track of Gita, but the passage of this system across New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday is likely to bring a period of highly impactful severe weather.

'There is high confidence of severe gales and heavy rain spreading across central and northern New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, winds associated with Gita are likely to cause large waves to affect some coastal places, and the expected storm surge allow run-up of waves in some low-lying coastal places, particularly at high tide.'

POSSIBLE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS

Air New Zealand said there may be possible disruptions to their network over the coming week.

'Accommodation and alternative flights could be limited for most of next week due to Cyclone Gita. We recommend you keep an eye on our arrivals and departures page,' a statement said. It was still too early to track exactly where the centre of the cyclone will cross, but people can expect heavy rains and severe gales possibly exceeding 120kmph, he said.