Which John Tamihere will run for Auckland mayor?
Monday, 28 January 2019
OPINION: John Tamihere's red-blue campaign for the Auckland mayoralty with running-mate Christine Fletcher could be the most intriguing bid yet in four elections in the Super City.
If you had asked around a year ago to name the pair that would try a red-blue double act, Tamihere with Fletcher would have been on few lists.
Tamihere is a fallen Labour MP with public scandals behind him, and Fletcher a National Party stalwart, and key figure in the centre-right's local body Auckland machine.
The eight months until the October election will reveal whether it was a stroke of genius, or a strike-out.
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The winners of Auckland's three previous mayoral contests - Len Brown twice and Phil Goff once - have cleaned up not only in their Labour-heritage heartlands of the west and south, but also done well in blue areas across Pakuranga, Howick and the isthmus.
Victory has been about broad appeal, showing an eye for keeping rate rises down, but also dealing with the city's big issues.
Tamihere is a political conundrum. Labour in his roots, but also with a social conservatism revealed to his considerable cost in 2005 when Investigate magazine published an interview that Tamihere thought had been an off-the-record chat.
His running-mate Christine Fletcher said at their campaign launch that Tamihere had 'matured and moved on' since the episode in which he'd described women as 'frontbums'.
Tamihere's demeanour went steely when his past was raised, obliquely asking in return whether anyone had not learned from mistakes.
The West Aucklander has the ingredients of a strong campaign if he can play them.
In the late 90s he picked up a clutch of 'person of the year' awards in the early stage of his career heading the Māori social agency Waipareira Trust.
Waipareira, under his continued leadership following two terms as an MP, is a big provider of social services and developer of social housing.
But Tamihere's 'tell it like he thinks' style means he could be one quip away from electoral disaster, if he can't focus on the game.
'He will certainly have me keeping an eye on him,' Fletcher told media at the launch.
Can Tamihere achieve the crossover needed to get election-winning support, and if not can Fletcher's presence persuade blue voters to 'come on in, the water's fine' ?
Can he deliver his strong views on social housing, in a way that doesn't suggest a conflict of interest with Waipareira?
For both Tamihere and Fletcher, can their pairing with a running-mate some might consider a polar opposite, enhance rather than damage their own support bases?
Goff is expected next month to confirm a second tilt, but there's no sign yet of the traditional centre-right contender.
A player previously in that camp, former National Party president Michelle Boag, is in Team Tamihere, alongside long-time left-wing campaign strategist Matt McCarten.
Two-time challenger John Palino is back but will need to lift his game to do more than mop up the core blue vote that he was left to pursue alone in 2013.
Watch this space.