Rating the Cabinet: Which ministers are thriving and who are just surviving - Audrey Young
ANALYSIS
Audrey Young runs the ruler over Cabinet’s best and worst performers, based on their public dealings and their effectiveness delivering policy.
Christopher Luxon today is not the same Christopher Luxon of last year.
Delegates to the National Party conference in South Auckland this weekend will see that.
He has the same energy but he is tougher, busier and a little more impatient.
He has been battle-hardened by a successful election campaign and the realities of Government.
He has been Prime Minister of the “best country on planet Earth” as he calls it since he and other ministers were sworn in on November 27.
Some of his own ministers have been performing extremely well, such as Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown and Erica Stanford who have scored highest in today’s Cabinet report card.
Luxon dealt with the ones who were struggling, Melissa Lee and Penny Simmonds, more swiftly and ruthlessly than his mentor, the “smiling assassin” Sir John Key.
That has put all ministers on notice that high standards are expected.
Today’s ratings are out of 10 and reflect a judgment about how effective ministers have been in delivering the Government’s policy, how effective they have been in their public dealings and in leadership roles where relevant. The ratings are not about the merits of policy.
Luxon himself while having accomplished a lot to become Prime Minister has room for improvement.
He talks up his optimism but is often defensive or negative.
He has been at his most positive on the numerous international missions he has led to promote New Zealand - with the exception of bagging the “C-listers” from business who accompanied other Prime Ministers.
The C-listers insult was an example of Luxon’s inexperience – the insult was clearly intended for previous Labour Prime Ministers Chris Hipkins and Jacinda Ardern, not business leaders.
But he is not yet as politically dexterous as he needs to be. In press conferences and interviews, he often relies on bluster or sloganeering which makes him sound more robotic than real.
He can be decisive, such as when he decided not to take a Wellington accommodation allowance to which he was entitled.
But he can also let stubborn issues drag out. It took four days, for example, for him to admit he could have expressed himself better over the “C-listers.”
In the confusing press conference with Mark Mitchell about the Corrections budget, Luxon repeatedly said he couldn’t make it any simpler when he was clearly as confused as the media.
His management style involves sticking close to problem areas and he will be clamped onto the health spending crisis until he is satisfied it is under control.
He sets goals and targets to improve performance. The previous government had back-office officials ticking off coalition promises. Luxon has made a virtue of them and turned them into public quarterly “action plans.”
Managing the Coalition is complicated because it is the prerogative of the Act Party and New Zealand First leaders to choose their ministers and discipline them.
But given the characters involved, and the potential for friction, Luxon appears to be managing it well and he has rated 8.
Christopher Luxon 8
Prime Minister
A strong manager of Cabinet and caucus. Decisive in removing struggling ministers from portfolios early. Sets high-performance standards and goals but needs to keep sloganeering in check. Has hands-off management of Coalition partners. Strong effort in representing NZ abroad with six trips so far. Yet to be tested in a crisis.
Winston Peters 8
Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs, Racing, NZ First leader
Slipped back into Foreign Affairs like a well-worn saddle and NZ’s interests are benefitting from his experience. Is living up to the goal of intensifying relationships in his hectic travel schedule. Could more actively and calmly front-foot his reset towards US-led alliances. Has not given cause for any question of commitment to the Coalition. Is leaving much of his party branding to his party’s other MPs, especially Shane Jones, and social media.
Nicola Willis 8
Finance, Public Service, Social Investment
Superb at managing the politics, possibly better than managing the books. Delivered on promised tax cuts but added $12 billion more borrowing than forecast in December. Biggest blunder was not including cancer drugs in first Budget but corrected it quickly with more than promised. Biggest test will be decisions flowing on from her bold call to cancel order for Cook Strait ferries.
Chris Bishop 9
Housing, Infrastructure, RMA Reform, Sport and Recreation
One of busiest and brightest ministers who is treating the job with urgency. A model to other ministers. Came into Govt with clarity about what he wants to do, shares his plans in speeches and consultation documents, engages publicly with a willingness to change if required.
Shane Reti 7
Health
Saddled with a restructured health system he never wanted, in a perpetual state of crisis, he had a bumpy start. Is not great on the politics. Should concentrate on the fix and health outcomes. Installing his own commissioner to run Health NZ gives him greater influence to change the system. It also means he has to own the outcomes. There’ll be no excuses in a year.
Simeon Brown 9
Transport, Energy, Local Government
Has a dry but important set of portfolios and is turning out to be the Government’s most populist minister - road cones, potholes, motorways and speed limits. Has also overseen the repeal of Three Waters and reintroduction of local referenda on Maori wards on councils. Highly combative in the House. Effective communicator outside it.
Erica Stanford 9
Education, Immigration, Government’s Response to Royal Commission into Abuse in State Care
Energetic. On top of her brief. One of the best-prepared ministers, having immersed herself in two big portfolios, education and immigration, in Opposition. Changes have been well-signalled and explained including adopting structured literacy, slowing down NCEA reform and having a more standardised curriculum. Has handled role responding to Abuse report exceptionally well so far but it’s early days. Challenges over redress are yet to come.
Paul Goldsmith 8
Justice, Arts, Culture and Heritage, Media and Communications, SOEs, Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations
Competent, confident and a free thinker. Has the most diverse set of portfolios. A calm Govt voice in the law-and-order debate. Best move: public meetings on law and order. Picked up media in reshuffle. A bigger test is yet to come in overseeing changes to foreshore and seabed laws and review of Treaty in legislation without an uprising from Maori.
Louise Upston 6
Social Development and Employment, Community and Voluntary Sector, Disability Issues, Child Poverty Reduction
Had the advantage of being shadow Social Development minister for six years before getting the job so was well prepared. PM had enough confidence to add the troubled Disabilities portfolio to her in April reshuffle. Big blunders: missing the first reading of one of her own bills last week, forcing its discharge, and quietly lowering child poverty reduction targets without announcing it.
Judith Collins 7
Defence, Attorney-General, GCSB, NZSIS, Science, Innovation and Technology, Space, Digitising Government, Response to the Royal Commission into Christchurch Terrorist Attack
Diligently engineered her own rehabilitation after being axed as party leader in Opposition and is reaping the rewards. Gained trusted and responsible portfolios, including spy agencies. Is an orthodox Attorney-General (a good thing) and is working closely with Peters on Aukus issues. She is in her element.
Mark Mitchell 7
Police, Corrections, Emergency Management and Recovery
Began term with public arm-wrestle with Police Commissioner which was always going to end in a draw. Has had a couple of hiccups: raising doubts about meeting pledged extra cops and running abysmal press conference when delivering a big boost to the Corrections budget. But plays an important role as National’s tub-thumper on law and order.
Todd McClay 7
Trade, Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting and Fishing
Doing well in much tougher environment than when he held Trade six years ago. Has travelled extensively including to WTO and G7 meetings, to India and China. Launched talks for FTA with UAE, with China for a services trade agreement and concluded a deal on sustainability started by Labour. Senior agriculture minister in a very crowded space with three associates but it seems to be working.
Tama Potaka 6
Conservation, Māori Crown Relations: Te Arawhiti, Māori Development, Whānau Ora, Associate Housing
Carries a lot of weight on his shoulders as the minister for primarily Māori-related portfolios in a Government accused of eroding Māori rights and the Treaty of Waitangi. Handling that difficult job reasonably well without mishap. But needs to do more than just keeping out of trouble.
Matt Doocey 6
Mental Health, ACC, Tourism and Hospitality, Youth, Associate Transport
The first Mental Health Minister, his focus and advocacy is helping to reduce the stigma of mental health problems. Has major challenges to get his sector in shape with dire workforce shortage and the overall health system under huge strain. In ACC, could have important role in response to Royal Commission report on Abuse in State Care. I hope he reads it.
Simon Watts 7
Climate Change, Revenue
One of Cabinet’s nerds, well suited to the complexities of climate change and the Emissions Trading System. But so far is overseeing policy contraction, not innovative policy to drive down emissions. Not much to do in Inland Revenue portfolio with tax policy well foreshadowed by the Finance Minister. Had a lucky break in the April reshuffle and was promoted.
Melissa Lee 3
Economic Development, Ethnic Communities
Reduced to putting out promotional press statements for big events part-funded by Government and speeches to mark important ethnic events. Had six years in Opposition to develop a cohesive media policy but didn’t. Wasn’t ready when a crisis struck and was deservedly stripped of media and communications and demoted from Cabinet.
Penny Simmonds 4
Environment, Tertiary Education and Skills
Environment was a puzzling appointment by Luxon and without giving her responsibility for the biggest issue within it, RMA reform, which went to Bishop. Has been relieved of responsibility for Disabilities sector because her inexperience led to failures by the new ministry Whaikaha. Great pressure to perform in tertiary education where she is undoing the national polytech merger. Surviving, not thriving.
Chris Penk 7
Building and Construction, Land Information, Veterans
Has begun Building and Construction with gusto including reviews of building consent processes, earthquake-prone risks, fire-safety and insulation standards and public works laws. Needs to take care not to become a victim of his own enthusiasm and to ensure fast change is justified. Potential for future promotion if there are no stuff-ups.
Nicola Grigg 5
Women, Associate Trade, Associate Agriculture
Hasn’t had a chance to shine or falter because of absence for maternity leave. Has responsibility for horticulture. Is in the school of 2020, entering Parliament the same year as Luxon. Wasn’t a high achiever in Opposition but has always seemed promising. Doesn’t have forever to fulfil that promise.
Andrew Bayly 7
Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Small Business and Manufacturing, Statistics
Quietly energetic. Making the most of his consumer-oriented portfolios. Last week saw the first reading of a bill paving the way for open banking and electricity, making it easy for customers to switch. Has also reversed finance regulations that made borrowing harder and has planned changes to insurance law and personal banking.
David Seymour 8
Act leader, Regulation, Associate Education, Associate Health, Associate Justice
Has advanced his party’s agenda significantly in every portfolio, from charter schools, Pharmac reset, and establishing new Ministry of Regulation. Is drafting Treaty Principles bill. Has maintained discipline in his party and for most of the term but has put Luxon in difficult position by continuing to criticise Waitangi Tribunal. Excellent communicator.
Brooke van Velden 7
Workplace Relations and Safety, Internal Affairs
Took over Workplace issues from a standing start and appears to be ambitiously working through problem areas including the Holidays Act tangle. But may face staunch opposition to any reform of health and safety laws. Has a handful of miscellaneous responsibilities under Internal Affairs (Fire and Emergency, Lotteries) that have no special interest for Act but just need a common sense minister. Fits the bill.
Nicole McKee 7
Courts, Associate Justice
For someone who came to Parliament as a one-issue wonder from the firearms lobby, she has broadened her interests and appeal. Has become a figure of dependability in the Act Party. Has been given responsibility for reinstating Three Strikes in a modified form. But will need some special skill in overseeing the review of firearms laws which had wide support after the mosques massacre.
Andrew Hoggard 6
Biosecurity, Food Safety, Associate Agriculture, Associate Environment
The former farming politician is working through Act’s big policy promises in agriculture from exiting the ETS, changing freshwater farm plans, and reinstating livestock exports. One blunder was suspending the requirement of councils to comply with the law regarding significant natural areas (SNAs) until it was pointed out that only dictators have such powers.
Karen Chhour 8
Children, Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence
No minister has been able to articulate with such clarity the problems with Oranga Tamariki. It will be a miracle if she can change it but she has a strength of purpose and character not often seen. Has already withstood political pressure over removing section 77A which would break other ministers. Facing similar pressure over “boot camp” pilot. She has reappointed the board of Maori advisers and iwi leaders who served under the previous govt.
Shane Jones 7
Regional Development, Resources, Oceans and Fisheries
Driven and unapologetic. Knows how to get a headline and that attracting criticism from detractors usually doubles the impact. But he is attracting criticism for reasons that leave an aftertaste – eg undeclared dinners. That said, he is effectively upholding the NZ First brand through support of mining, drilling, damming, and directly taking on Te Pati Māori and the Greens.
Casey Costello 5
Customs, Seniors, Associate Health, Associate Police
Thrown into Cabinet soon after her election, she had a terrible start over her response to OIA requests regarding advice on tobacco, which the Ombudsman has recently ruled were unlawful. With responsibility for tobacco policy and getting 500 extra cops, she is withstanding a pincer movement between Labour attack dogs former health minister Ayesha Verrall and former police minister Ginny Anderson.
Mark Patterson 5
Rural Communities, Associate Agriculture, Associate Regional Development
One of three associate agriculture ministers, he has significantly less responsibility than Act’s Hoggard. Has responsibility for Landcorp and wool. Doing his best to revitalise the flagging wool sector with target to double exports in 10 years. Was involved in farm politics in Southland and in the National Party until missing out on selection to Todd Barclay (and was once taught woodwork by Speaker Gerry Brownlee).
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.