Election 2023: Labour’s slump into the 20s continues, Winston Peters back in Parliament in latest 1News poll
National and Act can form a government, Labour is still in the 20s and New Zealand First is back in Parliament, according to the latest 1News Verian poll.
National came in at 39 per cent, up two points from the last poll in August. Labour had dropped one point to 28 per cent.
Both the Green Party and Act were on 10 per cent, dropping two and three points respectively.
Winston Peters’ New Zealand First hit the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament, up one point from the last poll.
Te Pāti Māori was steady on 3 per cent. The Opportunities Party and New Conservative were level on 1 per cent.
Ten per cent of poll respondents either didn’t know who they would vote for or refused to answer, shrinking from 12 per cent.
On these numbers, National would get 49 of the 120 seats in the House. Together with Act’s 13, the two parties surpass the 61-seat majority and could govern.
Labour would get 35 seats, the Greens 13 and NZ First would secure seven. If Te Pāti Māori won an electorate seat, which it is expected to do, it would get three seats.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon were tied for preferred prime minister on 23 per cent. It follows Monday’s Newshub poll which also had the pair equal as preferred PM.
Act leader David Seymour was the next highest on 5 per cent, down one point. Peters had risen one point to 4 per cent.
Peters told 1News he already knew his party was above the threshold, claiming he would be above 5 per cent.
Luxon wouldn’t rule out working with Peters, saying he wouldn’t talk about New Zealand First as the party had not been in Parliament.
Hipkins said Peters was a “force for chaos” while Seymour said Peters had little to offer Kiwis.
Hipkins also told 1News he thought Labour was “on the way back up again” after two consecutive polls in the 20s.
‘It’s more than Kenough’ - Act election sign given Barbie makeover
Royce
He’s just... David?
This afternoon, a suspicious Act campaign billboard with a Barbie-inspired design was seen on Cambridge Rd next to State Highway 29 in Tauranga.
A sign depicts Act party leader David Seymour as Ken from the massively successful movie Barbie, along with a pink Jeep and palm trees. It’s bright pink and filled to the brim with “kenergy”.
“I just love it,” Seymour told the Herald.
Read the full story here:
Royce
Luxon wouldn't rule out working with Peters, saying he wouldn't talk about NZ First as the party had not been in Parliament. Hipkins said Peters was a "force for chaos" while Seymour said Peters had little to offer Kiwis. Hipkins also told 1News he thought Labour was "on the way back up again" after two consecutive polls in the 20s.
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Peters told 1News he already knew his party was above the threshold, claiming he would be above 5 per cent.
Royce
Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon were tied for preferred Prime Minister on 23 per cent. It follows Monday's Newshub poll which also had the pair equal in preferred PM.
Act leader David Seymour was the next highest on 5 per cent, down 1 point. Peters had risen 1 point to 4 per cent.
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Labour would get 35 seats, 13 for the Greens and 7 for NZ First. If Te Pāti Māori won an electorate seat which it is expected to do, it would get 3 seats.
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Ten per cent of poll respondents either didn't know or refused to answer, shrinking from 12 per cent.
On these numbers, National would get 49 of the 120 seats in the House. Together with Act's 13, the two parties surpass the 61 seat majority and could govern.
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Both the Green Party and Act were on 10 per cent, dropping 2 and 3 points respectively.
Winston Peters' NZ First hit the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament, up 1 point from the last poll. Te Pāti Māori was steady on 3 per cent. Both the Opportunities Party and New Conservative were on 1 per cent.
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National and Act can form a government, Labour is still in the 20s and New Zealand First is back in Parliament, according to the latest 1News Verian poll.
National came in at 39 per cent, up 2 percentage points from the last poll in August. Labour had dropped 1 point to 28 per cent.
New poll results coming shortly
James Wheeler
TVNZ will release its latest 1News Verian poll at 6pm tonight. The Herald will have live updates of its results.
Claire Trevett: Why Luxon is keen to be the underdog
Natasha Gordon
The second-most sought-after trophy in an election campaign is that of being the underdog ahead of the televised election debates – second only to the title of Prime Minister at the end of the campaign.
Read more...
On the Campaign: How debate ready are our politicians?
Natasha Gordon
Richard Prebble this morning wrote that next week's election debate could play a big role in deciding the next government - so how prepared are our political leaders?
Listen to that and more in today's episode of On the Campaign, the Herald's daily news podcast.
Nicola Willis accuses Labour of consistently breaking spending promises
Natasha Gordon
National’s Nicola Willis has accused Labour’s Grant Robertson of consistently breaking his signalled spending allowances.
'Secret costings': Chris Hipkins criticises National's tax plan
Natasha Gordon
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said more tradies would be critical for Dunedin in particular given the planned build of a new hospital.
He also acknowledged it was two weeks since National released its tax plan and that Kiwis were still waiting to see the numbers behind it.
Continuing his attack on National's tax plan, Hipkins criticised the party for not being upfront about what parts of the public service it would cut.
"I think New Zealanders deserve better than that," Hipkins said, while urging National to release its "secret costings."
Asked why he thought National wasn't releasing its numbers, Hipkins believed it was because the numbers didn't add up.
"I think New Zealanders are entitled to know where National's plans are going to lead the country."
Hipkins accepted there would be a period of adjustment on migration following the Covid pandemic.
Labour would monitor migration closely and while more normal patterns were beginning to show, it had to be watched "closely."
Hipkins didn't want to set an "arbitrary number" on how much migration was needed because he wanted to be able to respond to the country's needs.
He said his visit to the Love Shack University flat brought back memories of his own tertiary education days.
On Luxon's comments about his debating skills, Hipkins said Luxon had also claimed he is one of the best managers in the country but couldn't make his tax plan add up.
He said both would be going into the debate on even footing and noted that Luxon had been the leader of his party longer than him.
Hipkins said National was attempting to buy the election through policies like its tax cuts.
Chris Hipkins cuts the ribbon to open the new trades training building at Otago Polytechnic
Natasha Gordon
The building was supported by $28 million in government “shovel ready” infrastructure funding (a combination of a grant and a loan) and will include trade spaces for welding, engineering and construction.
It won’t be fully operational until semester one 2024.
Hipkins said there weren’t enough tradespeople to meet demand when he became Education Minister in 2017, and that was how the restructure of the vocational education sector started - which National has pledged to reverse.
Te Pukenga represented the chance to align training with demand, he said, though the new institute has been beset with problems including an expected deficit of $80 million for 2022.
Hipkins said he remembered when the site was simply a hole in the ground, so was looking forward to seeing the building.
The facility is expected to be used to train a number of workers in local projects such as the Dunedin hospital rebuild.
Luxon says Labour’s doctor training policy isn't believable
Natasha Gordon
National leader Christopher Luxon said Labour’s policy for training more doctors was not credible or believable.
“We are 31 days out from an election and they have only just worked out that we have a health workforce crisis in New Zealand.”
National has promised an extra 225 doctors a year from 2030 by establishing a third medical school at the University of Waikato.
Luxon said the new medical school was a four year programme and many of the doctors would be trained in regional New Zealand. That meant the doctors were more likely to remain in rural areas where shortages were acute.
Luxon did not directly answer a question about how he would address the chokepoint for graduates needing hospital placements, but said National would open up immigration settings to build the overall workforce.
Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left
Natasha Gordon
If National leads the next government –and even if it doesn’t – the landscape on the right of New Zealand politics is changing.
'Rock solid': Luxon reiterates National's confidence
Natasha Gordon
National leader Christopher Luxon said yesterday's Prefu announcement showed "Labour's economic mismanagement."
He said National was putting its fiscal plan together and it would be released in the coming weeks.
He said National's tax cuts wouldn't be inflationary.
"We've said we'd cut wasteful spending. New Zealanders will save or spend [tax cuts] as they see fit," he said.
"I'm absolutely confident and rock solid we know what we're doing.
"What lower and middle-income New Zealanders deserve is tax cuts. They don't deserve to be saddled with debt serving costs.
"New Zealanders deserve a government who know how to run an economy."
Luxon reiterated, at least three times, National's plan was "rock solid" and he was confident in it.
He dodged repeated questions on what impact the foreign house buyer tax would have on the housing market.
"We are 31 days out from an election. [Labour] has only worked out we have a health worker shortage.
"It's not credible they have an idea about how to grow the workforce.
"The next best time to open up a medical school is tomorrow. It should have been six years ago.
"We've also got to open up our immigration settings," he said.
"Either we solve these problems or we just keep talking about them."
Luxon called Labour leader Chris Hipkins "probably the best debater in the country."
"But the country needs a great manager not a great debater."
Luxon pays a visit to Onehunga cement factory
Natasha Gordon
Luxon has donned his high-vis and safety glasses for a visit to the Cemix cement factory in Onehunga.
The National leader got a warm reception at the factory but was challenged by one employee: “Are you going to win this thing?”
“We are,” Luxon said. “This country … is heading in the wrong direction at the moment and we’re going to turn it around.”
“We’ll, I’ve got my money on you,” the employee said.
Hipkins kicks back in Dunedin student flat, named 'The Love Shack'
Vita
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has kicked his feet up in a Dunedin student flat.
He noted the heat pump, which helped to ensure the flat met the healthy homes standards.
Asking where the name Love Shack came from, the students said it probably wasn’t media-friendly to explain before side-stepping and saying it was the B52s song.
Two of the students are studying dentistry and asked Hipkins how he was going to get the workforce to enable free dental care for under 30s.
Hipkins said there was significant funding for training more students.
Hipkins gave the students donuts. They joked they wouldn’t have to eat chicken rice for dinner tonight.
“This is a much more presentable flat than any of the ones I lived in,” he said.
Student Jasmine Prince, 21 and studying dentistry, said she thought it was good for Labour to support free oral heath care for under 30s but she didn’t know if it was do-able given the workforce needs.
She thought the free donuts were great and joked that she wasn’t sure if it was an attempt at an election bribe.
Act's full law and order policy revealed
Vita
Act is pledging to fix what it claims is Labour’s “catch and release youth justice system” as part of its election promises on law and order.
The party has already released all of its law and order policies individually but today they have been compiled into one document.
Leader David Seymour published some of those policies on social media this morning, including gang control orders, youth infringement notices for shoplifters, putting ankle bracelets on serious youth offenders, reviewing how electronic monitoring is used, bringing back Three Strikes and requiring minimum literacy standards for parolees.
In a press release, Seymour said placing victims at the heart of the justice system and boosting prisons that are “truly rehabilitating”.
“Labour’s approach to law and order was developed around ‘kindness’, but they were misguided and applied it to criminals more than victims.
“To stop the cycle of reoffending, it is important that prisons are truly rehabilitative — so that offenders walk out of prison better than the person they were when they walked in.”
Act’s full law and order policies included:
- Amending the Sentencing Act by allowing judges to consider offending against someone while they were at work to be an aggravating factor during sentencing, while also advocating for tougher sentences for crimes on vulnerable workers
- Removing cultural reports from sentencing. Cultural reports are designed to give the judge more information about an offender’s background
- Amending the Sentencing Act principles to clarify that judges should impose the least restrictive outcome on an offender as long as it doesn’t pose a disproportionate risk to the community
- Investing $1 billion in building 500 more prison beds alongside necessary staffing. Act proposes significant cuts in other sectors to pay for spending increases in such areas as Corrections and Defence
- Funding 200 new youth justice prison beds that would be managed by Corrections
- Bringing 17-year-olds back into the adult justice system
- Disqualifying gang members from holding a firearms licence
- Directing Inland Revenue to investigate incomes of gang members
Seymour, speaking at a press conference this morning, believed Act and National could work “very well” on law and order if the two parties were able to form a government after the October 14 election.He dismissed questions about international evidence regarding approaches to crime and rehabilitation, saying it wasn’t right to cherry-pick examples without acknowledging differences between countries.“I think New Zealand has to chart its own path.”
Security top of mind for Papatoetoe constituents
Vita
During his visit to Papatoetoe, everyone Christopher Luxon meets says crime is top of mind.
He has visited a series of jewellers near Hunter’s Corner which have heavily-fortified entrances for security.
Gurdeep Singh, who owns Gold Creations, said he spent $6000 on security gates at his shop a year ago.
He had not had any break-ins, but because every other shop had put in security measures he felt vulnerable.
It completely changed the look of his business, he told Luxon.“It’s not a showcase any more, it’s just about security.”
Labour will boost doctor training
Vita
Labour has announced a plan to boost doctor training. Asked about where the additional doctors would go once they are trained, health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said there was no shortage of work, but it was also important to fill gaps in rural areas.
Asked about stopping them from going to Australia, she said retention in the medical sector was good, and lots of the students she was meeting talked about the importance of giving to their communities.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said being able to buy a house and living in a safe community would also make staying in New Zealand a more rosier prospect.
Verrall said immigration had plugged the workforce gaps in the health sector but adding more medical student placements, at a cost of $1 billion or so over 10 years, showed how Labour didn’t want to have to rely on migrant workers.
Vita
Christopher Luxon at a Sikh temple in Papatoetoe. He’s wearing a rumal (headdress) as he tucks into onion bhaji and sweets with candidate Navtej Randhawa.
Hipkins shakes hands at Otago University
Vita
Labour leader Chris Hipkins and health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall are at Otago University medical school this morning.
The pair heard from Tongan and Samoan students about how they wanted to study medicine to give back to their communities in a culturally competent way.
Hipkins said cultural competence came up a lot and it was helpful if the doctor and patient shared the same culture.
Students told Hipkins and Verrall about the importance of prevention, and Verrall responded by saying there had been a lot of policies aimed at preventing the need for hospital care, including free dental for under 30s and smoke-free policies.
Hipkins asked the students how they looked after themselves and was told how sports and creative outlets were important, but also that medical students were also quite “chill and relaxed”.
One West Coast-based student told Hipkins about rural-based people don’t have the same opportunities, or are often not aware of such opportunities. Rural health outcomes are worse, as they are for indigenous people.
Hipkins asked how opportunities can be put more on the radar for young rural people and was told they needed to be more exposed to such opportunities.
He said children often couldn’t envisage anything beyond their lived experience. He joked that he would send the student to all the rural communities to talk about her experience once she finished her studies.
A Northland student told Hipkins the first time he was exposed to a doctor - who happened to be National MP Dr Shane Reti - was at a local fair. It was “paramount” to bridge health disparities for those who live in hard-to-reach places.
Luxon on Papatoetoe walkabout
Vita
National leader Chris Luxon is doing a walkabout in Papatoetoe this morning - in the middle of the Panmure-Otahuhu seat.
National’s candidate in the electorate is Navtej Randhawa, who replaced another Punjabi MP, Kanwaljit Singh-Bakshi.
It is a safe Labour seat - MP Jenny Salesa won with a thumping 18,000-vote majority in 2020.
But Randhawa’s father, Ajit Singh, said they were more optimistic this year because the left vote could be split.
Auckland mayoral candidate Efeso Collins is running here for the Greens.
"We’re going to have a tough fight,” he said. Papatoetoe is considered a heartland for Punjabi migrants, with three temples in the area.
Act to release full law and order policy
Vita
The Act Party is set to release its full law and order policy this morning and leader David Seymour has teased parts of it on social media. It includes:
- Gang control orders which allow police to apply to judges to grant an injunction against a gang member on the National Gang List which could prevent them from being in a particular location or associating with certain people.
- Youth infringement notices for shoplifting that would result in fines or community service for the offender.
- Ankle bracelets for serious youth offenders
- Review how people are sentenced for electronic monitoring
- Bringing back the Three Strikes legislation that was made law in 2010 but scrapped by Labour last year.
- Requiring a minimum literacy standard of prisoners before getting parole.
Debates will be 'critical' - Woods
Vita
Labour hopes Chris Hipkins will be able to change voters' minds, by outperforming Christopher Luxon in the upcoming leaders' debates.
Campaign Chair Megan Woods told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking Breakfast the debates could play a far more critical role than they have in previous elections.
"They're not always critical, but I think at this election where there are huge questions particularly dangling over the National Party's costings and how it's all going to add up, they will be a really critical part of it."
National front-bencher Mark Mitchell said Luxon will hold his own, and many voters have already decided they want change.
"These guys are talking up Hipkins big time for the debates. Kiwis are far more interested in policies and they are far more interested in seeing our country back on the right track."
Act's David Seymour on politics, his private life and mini-putt
Vita
How does one get to know a man who could be the next Deputy Prime Minister who’s just been pilloried for a joke about blowing up a ministry and claims the only way he unwinds is “sleep”?
Take him mini-golfing, of course.
Luxon and Hipkins leaders debate is a must-watch
Vita
Depending on which poll you look at, the election result turns on whether National and Act together can get to 61 MPs, or if New Zealand First will once again decide our fate.
Health communications staff on Luxon's chopping block
Vita
National Party leader Christopher Luxon told the AM Show there are savings to be found in every government agency, with a few exceptions.
“We don’t want farewell parties, we don’t want prezzy cards to encourage people to go to court, and we don’t want wasted money,” he said.
Luxon said they want a total of 6.5 per cent prioritisational savings delivered across the total agencies.
He gave an example of 200 communication people working at Health NZ.
“We’re going to move that headcount or the money that is being spent and put it into nurses.”
He said MBIE could be on the hook for a 30 per cent cut in savings.
“That will be up for the CEOs to determine.”
“All the front line services such as victim support and legal aid will be safe.”
When pressed on whether soft Labour voters who may choose National would be worried about a rightward swing with Act, Luxon said he doesn’t want voters to choose any other party than National.
Luxon said he considers himself “very much a centrist and a pragmatist.”
He said a potential support agreement with David Seymour “isn’t going to happen”
“David and I have a good working relationship and we talk regularly, and we will be constructive, mature and responsible and make it work.”
No 'click your fingers' fix for inflation - Robertson
Vita
Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson told Hosking he believed in the 1.3 growth predicted by Treasury and he also believed “inflation was coming down.”
"The trend is there and I am very optimistic we will be inside the Reserve Bank target for next year," he said.
Hosking asked how this could happen when wages were going up and there was “not enough growth to support it.”
Robertson said it was reflective of the slowdown in the economy but the books showed “a better result than we expected but still represented the economy slowing down."
Hosking asked why food prices were still high in New Zealand when around the world they were dropping.
“A big part of that is flow on from the weather events,” Robertson said. “If you speak to the supermarkets and the food buyers they will tell you it has been a big part of it.”
Hosking asked if it was “more than lettuces in flooded paddocks.”
Robertson said it was everything, transport and “everything to do with the supply chain.”
Hosking asked Robertson about the $10b level of debt and pointed out it was “more than we spend on the police force.”
Robertson replied: “It is a lot of money Mike but it is the price we pay for being able to put ourselves through Covid. You can’t just click your fingers and pay it back it gets paid back over a period of time and interest rates are now higher than they were.
“We took that decision and this a consequence of that decision but historically it is in the ballpark - 2 per cent of GDP.”
'Light at the end of the tunnel' - Robertson
Sophie Ryan
Labour’s finance spokesman Grant Robertson says the PREFU results show there’s “light at the end of the tunnel” for New Zealand’s economy - telling TVNZ’s Breakfast that cost pressures would start to ease on households soon.
Inflation would be close to 3 per cent next year and wages were forecast to track ahead of inflation - around 4.8 per cent - over the next few years, he said.
“That means that people will be getting money in their pocket.” He also questioned whether predictions of rising unemployment would come true.
Asked if elevated Crown expenses meant the Government didn’t have a handle on its spending, Robertson said 79 per cent of spending in this year’s Budget was from cost pressures such as meeting inflation.
Since then examples of spending included settling negotiations with nurses to ensure they’d stay in the country, and dealing with weather events and relocating people.
“That’s what government has to do, you deal with the thing that’s in front of you.”
Steven Joyce reacts
Sophie Ryan
A former finance minister is warning whoever wins the next election will need to tighten the belt.
Former National Party Finance Minister Steven Joyce told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking Breakfast the Government's books are in a comparative position to the peak of the Global Financial Crisis.
He says there will have to be a close look at government spending than there was, similar to when National came to power in 2008.
Both major parties share wins
Sophie Ryan
Neither major party emerged victorious from Tuesday’s battle over Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (Prefu) forecasts - it was a draw, Thomas Coughlan writes.
It comes two days after the latest Newshub Reid Research Poll showed Labour on 26.8 per cent, down 5.5 percentage points, while National polled at 40.9 per cent, up 4.3 points.
Even though Act had dropped two points to 10.1, National and Act could form a government on those numbers, earning 66 seats (National with 53 and Act with 13).
Hipkins and Luxon were also equal in the preferred prime minister stakes on 22.5 per cent in Monday’s poll. Hipkins had dropped 1.5 points with Luxon rising 6.6 points.
This poll was taken after both parties held their campaign launches, Labour’s promise for free dental care for people under 30 years old and National’s proposed tax plan.
In the previous 1News Verian poll last month, Labour crashed to its worst result in that survey for six years, coming in at 29 per cent, down 4 percentage points from the previous poll in July.
Meanwhile, National had jumped two points to 37 and Act was up one point to 13.
In the preferred PM race, Hipkins was leading Luxon but only by one 1 per cent after the Labour leader dropped six points from the last poll.
Hipkins has been in Dunedin today to open a trades training building and announce Labour’s promise to lift the number of places at the Otago Medical School by 95 a year each year next term.
He spent much of his press conference today attacking National’s proposed tax plan, calling on Luxon to release his “secret costings”.
Meanwhile, Luxon visited a factory and small businesses in south Auckland. He was repeatedly asked by journalists why National wasn’t releasing more details that informed his tax plan and what impact its foreign buyers’ tax would have on house prices, but he didn’t give a clear answer except to say he was confident in his numbers.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.