Election 2023: Back to the Beehive - Covid-19 inquiry as NZ First looks to bring Nats to table for quick deal
Incoming and outgoing MPs have arrived in Wellington as National leader Christopher Luxon and Act leader David Seymour sound each other out ahead of opening formal talks on the shape of the next Government.
The first call between the leaders was scheduled for Sunday evening.
The pair speak frequently. Seymour told Q+A they were “talking all day... on and off” on election day itself, but Sunday evening’s call is the beginning of their journey together as governing partners.
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That's a wrap people - but only for today! Thanks for joining us for our post-election news.
Join us early tomorrow morning for the latest updates on our post-election coverage.
What happens next for Labour?
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Now that we know the preliminary results, how long do we need to wait for National to negotiate a coalition? And what happens next for Labour after their historic defeat?
Listen to today's episode of On the Campaign for the latest analysis on the state of coalition talks.
Returning NZ First MP excited to be in Parliament
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Returning NZ First MP Shane Jones said they were returning to Parliament with an “exciting feeling”.
He said he did not think the return of the special votes could lead to a hung Parliament and urged people not to expect “rapid action”.
Asked about the party’s negotiating tactics with National, Jones said their focus was on meeting as a caucus first, which included four new MPs along with four returning.
“These issues have to be first addressed when we discuss our internal plans as a brand new caucus.
"Our colleagues go through the inevitable admin processes so they're fully blooded into Parliament. So we can't get ahead of ourselves. And obviously, we just don't know.”
Asked if they would be seeking an expansion on the provincial growth fund he was responsible across the 2017 to 2020 term, Jones said it would be a “bit rash” to make any large calls until they had seen the true state of government finances.
On a report National had offered - and had rejected - the speakership to NZ First leader Winston Peters, Jones said he had only heard through media that former National Prime Minister John Key had suggested it.
“Look, John's always favored himself as the Warren Buffett of New Zealand politics, but I'll leave that to the National Party,” he said.
“It's not something that I'm formally aware of other than just a rumour doing the rounds.”
On Act’s proposal for a referendum on the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, Jones said it was not something they had campaigned but they wanted to see “balance restored”.
“And we want the Māori Party to be reminded that the background to the Treaty is that it's a bilingual, bicultural document, and we have zero truck with this notion that Te Tiriti is a charter of native sovereignty.”
He said he would not get drawn into any negotiations when asked about his views on keeping the superannuation age at 65, given National and Act want to raise it, but that those issues had been “very important to the party since its inception”.
“But these matters will all be teased through when the caucus speaks."We all know there's a sense of impatience already. But… we need to understand what's the full nature of the special votes. It's a little bit like doing a hāngi, first you get the stones red hot.”
Fellow returning MP Jenny Marcroft said it was “really exciting” to see the support for the party.“We're absolutely thrilled that we've got so much support and really grateful to all of those who supported New Zealand First to to see us return to Parliament.”
National Party with brand new MPs
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Regarding his new MPs, Luxon said he had already got to know them.
“I’m in awe of how hard they worked. That’s what you saw come home on Saturday night.
“Chris Hipkins and I spoke about that [a transition between governments] on election night.
“It’s fantastic to see in a democracy that transition run smoothly.
“We want to use the time in the next three weeks to see briefings.
Willis denies not wanting to work with Winston
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Deputy National leader Nicola Willis denied ever saying she didn’t want to work with Winston Peters.
Luxon said Willis would be part of a negotiating team.
“We’re going to work professionally, respectfully, with other parties," Luxon said. (edited)
Willis declined to comment on tax cuts.
Luxon said tax cuts were a “key commitment to New Zealanders” and said they would go ahead.
“We want to deliver tax relief, and that’s what we’re planning to do.
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“It’s all good, don’t worry about it,” he said regarding the timeframe of negotiations.
“We have a process in place. We are in an MMP system. We are tasked with making that work.
“I’m not here to give you a blow-by-blow update about conversations which are private.
He said he had a “great” conversation with the Australian prime minister and he was confident they would work well together.
“I want to work in a different way. I want to build a proper government. I’m not interested in the sideshow and parlour games.
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“I appreciate there’s lots of interest [in negotiations]. I know, and I believe, that good governments are about building good chemistry [with other parties].
Luxon said there were “a number of dynamics at play” with special votes which could change how people abroad typically vote.
“This time it might be slightly different. The mix of what could come through could be quite different.
Incoming Prime Minister speaks to media
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Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said it was great to welcome his new MPs into Parliament, but did have to hush them as he spoke to media.
Regarding negotiations with other potential governing parties, he said he was working to build “strong relationships” with other parties.
He said he had been negotiating with different parties separately.
“What I owe New Zealanders is to deliver a strong and stable government. That’s the work I said I would go off and do.
“I’m really sorry, but I’m just not going to be discussing [negotiations].
“I was clear about the parties I would work with.
“I’ve read a lot of punditry and I will say to you, it’s often very wrong.
“I’m not ruling things in or out based on these [media] conversations.
He said National had spoken with New Zealand First.
“What we’ve got to do right now is form a government. We’re being respectful of the weeks it will take to count the special votes.
“We’ve got very good discipline in the National Party and I expect that to continue.
Luxon makes his way to Parliament
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National Party leader Christopher Luxon has touched down in Wellington making his way to Parliament for the first time since election.
Luxon hurried through the terminal, barely slowing to speak to waiting media.
He is due to give a press conference later this afternoon.
Luxon had very little to say, declining to answer most questions.
He said negotiations about forming a government with Act and potentially NZ First would be “worked out over the next days and weeks”.
He declined to answer a question about potential for a hung Parliament, responding: “We're here at Wellington, beautiful day, new National government, the All Blacks are winning.”
He said he was “absolutely” excited to be becoming Prime Minister.
Asked his priorities, he said the first was to see what the special votes were, second to work out arrangements with the parties and third to work with the outgoing Government on transition.
He declined to comment on any conversations with Winston Peters and NZ First and Act and leader David Seymour, saying they were private.
He said the party’s Māori development spokesman Tama Potaka had “absolutely not” been prevented from speaking to Māori media.
This was after The Hui reported Potaka declined to appear on their show on Sunday
Luxon arrives in Wellington
Bailey Brannon
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Labour’s Sarah Pallett lost Ilam to National’s Hamish Campbell, finishing third behind The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji.
Pallett said she had expected to lose the seat with Manji splitting the vote on the left.
But she said the result for Labour nationally hadn’t been expected to the same extent and was “really disappointing”.
“I've had a life before Parliament, I have a life afterwards.”
She said she wasn’t sure about her next steps and whether it could involve another go at politics.
“We'll just see what the future holds.”
National MP tight-lipped on new Speaker of the House
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National Party MP Gerry Brownlee said it was a “resounding result” over the weekend for the party.
Brownlee, an MP since 1996, went list-only this election with much speculation he would be advocating for the role of Speaker of the House in a National-led Government.
Arriving at Wellington Airport, Brownlee would not be drawn to comment on that issue saying it was “totally decision for the leader”.
He also said he would not comment on reports NZ First leader Winston Peters had been offered the role and rejected it.
He said he was not part of the negotiating team saying that was for the party’s front bench MPs.
'Very mixed feelings' for returning Labour MP
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Labour’s Ingrid Leary said she was disappointed at the overall result but “extremely humble and proud” to have retained the Taieri seat.
Leary won by about 1300 votes - a huge drop from 2020 when she won by nearly 13,000 votes.
Taieri was also one of few places across the country where Labour won the party vote.
“It's been a weekend of very mixed feelings. I'm really gutted for some of my colleagues, but actually more so for the vulnerable communities in the marginalised communities that need a left-wing government.
“I am concerned about what will happen to them, but we will be a strong opposition, and we will do that job really well.”
Leary said it was too soon to be talking about any leadership issues, but said it wasn’t something she had thought about for herself.
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National MP Louise Upston also had a decisive victory, reclaiming Taupō by over 14,000 votes. She first won the seat in 2008 and is one of few National MPs with ministerial experience, looking after the corrections portfolio under Bill English.
Upston has played a big role in Opposition as social development spokeswoman, but said any ministerial decisions would be for Luxon.
“I'm sure he's been mulling that over and I shall leave it to him.”
She said she wanted to come down early to be part of welcoming the new MPs but also say goodbye to those departing.
“So mixed emotions all around. But I'm really, really thrilled that we've got so many new MPs joining us.”
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National MP Todd McClay said he was “energised” about being part of the new Government.
McClay retained Rotorua with over half of the votes, getting more than 18,000 more than the Labour candidate.
As one of the few National MPs with ministerial experience McClay said he would be looking to help “wherever I can”, but added his main focus right now was advocating for Rotorua and particularly issues around emergency housing.
He said there was a lot of “common ground” between National, Act and NZ First but it would take some time to work out.
“Ultimately, governments that are successful, you build a strong relationship based on mutual respect and trust. And so I think there'll be some big opportunities that next couple of couple of weeks to do that.”
More MPs arrive in Wellington
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Kiri Allan's next move revealed
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Months after leaving Cabinet, Allan has launched a new business.
Inside the exit packages for departing MPs
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As the reality of the election results set in, and politicians emerge from their post-election celebrations (or commiserations), the latest crop of ousted MPs are heading back to Parliament to clean out their desks.
Here's what they're entitled to on their way out.
Te Pāti Māori surge 'not over yet'
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National expects to lose a seat in final count
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New National MP for Hutt South Chris Bishop says National is “fully expecting” to lose at least one seat when the special votes are counted.
“We just have to wait and see what happens - there’s still half a million special votes to count and they tend to favour the left,” he told Nick Mills' Wellington Mornings.
He said he was proud of the campaign the National Party had led, and acknowledged that Wellington Central is a hard seat to try and win for them.
“Wellington Central is a tough seat for National - it hasn’t been a right-leaning seat since the 90s. You could count on one hand the number of right-leaning viewpoints in Aro Valley.”
He confirmed National will scrap Let’s Get Wellington Moving, saying it had failed to deliver, and will instead focus on State Highways and increasing car and bus capacity through to the Eastern suburbs.
On what portfolio he wanted, he said the choice was up to the National Party leader Christopher Luxon - but if he could choose, he would like to keep his current portfolios of housing and infrastructure.
“Housing is my real passion. I want to solve Wellington and Lower Hutt's housing crisis, and I want to alleviate homelessness in Wellington because it is a disgrace.”
'That's democracy' - Willie Jackson
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Labour’s Willie Jackson said: "That’s democracy.”
He said he was sitting next to Seymour on the plane and had congratulated him on his new MPs.
He said he had not thought about his place over the next three years but would first sit down with the Labour team.
“I'm just going to see how the team is. We've got to find out what Chippy [leader Chris Hipkins] wants to do. And hopefully he wants to stay.”
He said he also wanted to assess the Māori caucus, which had shrunk several members to nine, including veteran MP Nanaia Mahuta who lost in a shock result in Hauraki-Waikato to 21-year-old Hana-Rawhiti Maipi Clarke of Te Pāti Māori.
Mahuta’s seat was one of four Māori electorates Labour lost to Te Pāti Māori. While it was largely accepted they would lose Waiariki and Te Tai Hauāuru, there was another shock result in Rino Tirikatene losing Te Tai Tonga to Tākuta Ferris. Tirikatene had appeared to have an iron grip on the seat since first claiming it in 2011.
“It's disappointing but the wave was against us.
“But I'm proud that we still got three seats, and we've got it. We've still got a strong Maori caucus, but it's how it goes.”Jackson said in Opposition they would not be “on the sidelines” if National and Act fulfilled its campaign promises to roll back progress Labour had made for Māori, including Act’s policy of a referendum on the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
He said they would look to “organise” with Te Pāti Māori and the Greens.
Seymour lands in Wellington
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Act Party leader David Seymour said his immediate focus was welcoming his party’s new MPs.
He said conversations with National leader Christopher Luxon about forming a government together had been “really positive”.
“We're working through what the next few weeks might be like. There's much negotiating about negotiating, but we'll get there and we're going to try and do it in a way that is a bit more respectful and discreet.
“We're not going to be playing out blow by blow.”
Asked if they would look to most of a deal ready before special votes are finalised, Seymour said people had “voted for change” and their job was to deliver “political stability”.
Asked about working with NZ First and Winston Peters, Seymour said that could end up being the situation.
“We're going to have to look at what the people have given us when the votes are counted.
"It may well be that we ended up in that sort of situation.
“But what I do know is that Act and National working together is always going to be a more stable government.”
One woman passing by called out, “Shame on you David Seymour”.
Seymour said he had not received much of that, mostly “congratulations”.
Oskar Alley
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, who won the Waiariki seat with a majority of more than 10,000 votes, arrives in Wellington.
He said the party was “elated” to be doubling their caucus from two to four.
Special votes could even see that rise further.
“We've been in opposition since 1840, and will continue to be in opposition. It’s a place that really hasn’t catered for Māori.”
He said they won’t be taking any phone calls from Luxon, which differed to the party position on Saturday.
More MPs arrive in Wellington
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Labour’s Damien O’Connor had very little to say as he arrived at Wellington Airport, declining to stop to speak to media.
O’Connor lost his West Coast-Tasman seat to National’s Maureen Pugh by fewer than 1000 votes. O’Connor was first elected there in 1993, and lost the seat on just one other occasion in 2008, also when the overall result flipped from a Labour to National-led Government.
O’Connor, who is in Parliament on the party list, declined to answer any questions about what the result could mean for his future.
Oskar Alley
Senior Labour MPs Willie Jackson and Carmel Sepuloni.
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Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni said she had no intention to leave and needed sit down with the team.
On Hipkins, she said that was a decision for him.
MPs new and old arrive in Wellington
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Act leader David Seymour, pictured at Wellington Airport.
'The world has changed and we have to change with it'
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Labour MP for Ohariu Greg O’Connor has thanked his constituents for re-electing him, and promised they would not be disappointed.
He told Newstalk ZB Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills he felt as though he was walking into an entirely different job after National won the general election.
“The world has changed and we have to change with it. There is an element of losing my buddies - but there is some good talent too.”
He credited his re-election to his “omnipresence and determination.”
“This electorate - it looks like a big place with lots of people but I want to know who those people are. I know why they gather, where they gather and who is organising it. It comes from the hard mahi of being there.
"I’ve done that and people have seen that.”
No leadership questions for Labour MPs
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Labour MP Megan Woods says no leadership questions have come up yet after the party’s devastating election defeat on Saturday.
Woods arrived this morning from Christchurch.
As per party processes there would be a leadership review within three months from the election, but Woods said there had been no discussions about that so far.
“Everybody thinks Chris did a fantastic job. There's no question about the fact that people have faith in Chris.”
Woods retained Wigram in a close contest with National’s Tracey Summerfield.
New Labour Christchurch East MP Reuben Davidson also arrived this to Wellington this morning.
Davidson said his main focus would be advocating for his electorate.
'Hurtful': Wellington Central MP on why she refused interview with Hosking
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New Wellington Central MP Tamatha Paul clarified why she declined an interview with Mike Hosking on Saturday night, saying some of the broadcaster's comments can be “inflammatory” for the people she represents.
“There is a lot of distrust from some communities about some of the things he says - they can be hurtful.”
“That doesn’t align with the Greens.”
However, the young politician no longer only represents the Green Party, but all Wellington central residents.
Labour MPs downcast as they arrive at Wellington Airport
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Wellington turns Green
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Rongotai’s newly elected Green MP Julie Ann Genter spoke in the studio for Newstalk ZB's Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills following her win on Saturday.
She said she is deeply honoured to have won the seat - but acknowledged nothing is set in stone until the special votes are counted.
“There’s a lot of special votes, but we don’t expect it to change the result - but never say never!”
On why she thought Wellington had turned Green, Genter said she put it down to people “increasingly seeing we have to take action on climate change”.
“There are solutions to the difficulties we’re facing that have equity. Labour promised it, but kept ruling out things that would help them deliver.”
She said in terms of housing and transport the Greens policy was not “that much” different to Labours.
Her next steps were to meet with the city and regional council - she has already spoken to the Mayor and her other Green colleague Tamatha Paul who won the Wellington Central seat.
Luxon on Musk: 'Don't know him'
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
When asked about why he thought Labour performed badly, the National leader said there was a much stronger sense of support than pundits and commentators were talking to.
“The real issues for people are exactly what we were talking about – people are really fixated on the cost of living.”
Luxon said it would be ideal if he could go to this year’s APEC conference and release a mini budget.
“We think that there will be a bit of volatility in the economic situation and inflation numbers coming out shortly, so it will give us a chance to reset and say this is what we need to do.”
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On the comments on how fit his wife is, Luxon said his wife told him “I think I’ve had my biceps for years, and this is the first time people have noticed them.”
“She’s just fit and active. She gets up, runs in the morning and is ready for the day.”
Luxon said his wife helped to organise his routine and diet ever since entering politics.
Act's referendum on the treaty would be divisive - Luxon
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When asked about a potential referendum on treaty principles, the National leader said their campaign position was that such a referendum would be divisive.
Why Luxon says he wants to take his time, and what Labour has been 'quite good' at
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National Party leader Christopher Luxon told the AM Show that there 570,000 special votes yet to be counted.
“There are a lot of dynamics in play in special votes that means it could be the same as normal in terms of how it breaks, or it could be different,” he said.
“There are a lot of people travelling, there are a lot of people who were frustrated by the MIQ process.”
The Botany MP said he does want to take three weeks and build relationships and talk about arrangements with the respective parties.
“We’ll move at the paces they want to move at and each of them will be different.
“With Act, there is a lot we want to get moving with through this period of time.”
He said he genuinely wants to build good will, meanwhile there is a lot to work on in terms of transition.
“The Labour government has been quite good in terms of working with our team on practical things like briefings on foreign affairs.”
Luxon said his and Winston’s teams have spoken but not them personally.
National faces deal-or-wait conundrum, Hipkins faces leadership question
Vera Alves
There is a very limited window for National leader Christopher Luxon to relish his post-election euphoria, writes Claire Trevett.
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‘It was a fun campaign’: National’s social media guru speaks after video push eclipses Labour
Vera Alves
Sean Topham, a co-founder of the Topham Guerin agency that conducted campaigns for conservative parties including National, Australia’s Liberals and the UK Conservatives, told the Herald the party’s use of videos on platforms such as Facebook and TikTok was vital to its victory in Saturday’s general election.
Read more below:
Nanaia Mahuta hopes Māori progress won’t be reversed
Vera Alves
Mahuta said she had concerns a National/ Act government could impact progress that was made for the Māori population under the now-outgoing government.
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
'Absolutely despicable': Seymour 'disappointed' by James Shaw's comments
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Seymour said he was disappointed in Green Party co-leader James Shaw's comments warning there could be violence if Seymour is successful in negotiating for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.
"I'm actually really disappointed," he said.
"What he has said is absolutely despicable. It's typical of more the fringe politicians who if they don't get what they want, they threaten violence.
"I'm astonished to hear it from James Shaw."
Seymour says Act waiting on special votes - 'that's the rules'
Vera Alves
ACT Party leader David Seymour said what is clear, there is going to be a process driven by the special votes that may well deliver them a majority to work together with the National Party.
"But there's also a possibility that there's going to be a third person in this marriage - as Diana once said - and we're going to have to work through how we create a three-way deal," he said, acknowledging the potential inclusion of NZ First.
Seymour said the public had voted for change, but he also acknowledged the importance of the special votes and democracy.
"About 567,000 people's votes haven't been counted yet and their vote counts too - so we wait. That's the rules."
Luxon's team has already reached out to Winston Peters' team
Vera Alves
Luxon reiterated to TVNZ’s Breakfast he didn’t want coalition discussions progressed “blow by blow” through the media, which he had observed happening in previous elections.
“We’re gonna do that privately, we will do that constructively and professionally with each of the parties.”
While special voters traditionally leaned left - with many likely to be people like renters and students moving electorates - Luxon pointed out a large number could also have been overseas travelling, such as those in Europe for the rugby.
There were a number of hypotheticals that could play out around extra seats and overhangs, he said. But in the intervening weeks he wanted to focus on building relationships. His team had already reached out to NZ First's team.
While his hundred-day plan did not mention cost of living, Luxon said getting inflation under control was the government’s number one task.
“If we can get inflation down we can remove the pain that people are experiencing with their mortgage payments, to food and fuel as well.”
Luxon wants 'quick and early wins'
Vera Alves
Asked how he would discipline his ministers, Luxon said in the last two to three months, he had brought in former Prime Minister Bill English and staff, former Finance Steven Joyce and chief of staff Wayne Eagleson to have sessions with his caucus about what the reality of going to Government looks like.
"How you actually work with the public service to get a result versus getting captured by the public service.
"I actually want ministers to come to those jobs about clarity about what they're there to do."
He wanted to get "quick and early wins" in the first six months in each of the portfolios.
Asked if it felt good to be where he is now, he acknowledged that it had been like a job interview the last two years.
Luxon tells Hosking he would prefer a deal with Act
Vera Alves
Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he wants to "get cracking on" building relationships and starting conversations with respective political parties in forming a government.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning, he acknowledged there is a large chunk of special votes still needing to be counted.
Asked about his thinking on NZ First and party leader Winston Peters, he said: "I would prefer as I've always said, in a coalition National and Act - I think that would be the strongest and simplest way to do it."
But he said there are other things to consider - namely special votes and an overhang.
"What I want to do is progress the relationship, progress arrangements. And we might move at different rates and different paces, with respective parties, but actually want to get on with that."
Pushed on Peters and whether or not he would be part of the new government, Luxon was firm: "Again, I'm not going to go into that. I'm really not."
"As I've said, my preference is to work with National and Act - if we can do it alone, we will. But as I said, I'd pick up the phone and we would work with Mr Peters and New Zealand First."
Luxon said they would work well with the Act Party. On financial matters, Luxon said their intention is to make an early Budget before Christmas.
"We'd like to - yep," he told Hosking.
He said they needed to get into wasteful spending, go through government spending and pull that down.
"Get the waste out of the system and then get the Reserve Bank focused on getting inflation under 3 per cent and keep working at pushing that down hard."
Luxon said there had been a lot of businesses that had held off on investment because of the uncertainty. "The same has happened out on [the] farm - the result has been a very unstable environment for farmers to work out what's happening and what rules are going to be hit with them next.
"We have to work through removing the red tape, removing the waste out of government spending and free the country up...and keep people moving."
Luxon ready to 'get cracking on'
Sophie Ryan
Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he wants to "get cracking on" building relationships and starting conversations with respective political parties in forming a government.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning, he acknowledged there is a large chunk of special votes still needing to be counted.
Asked about his thinking on NZ First and party leader Winston Peters, he said: "I would prefer as I've always said, in a coalition National and Act - I think that would be the strongest and simplest way to do it."
But he said there are other things to consider - namely special votes and an overhang.
"What I want to do is progress the relationship, progress arrangements. And we might move at different rates and different paces, with respective parties, but actually want to get on with that."
Pushed on Peters and whether or not he would be part of the new government, Luxon was firm: "Again, I'm not going to go into that. I'm really not."
"As I've said, my preference is to work with National and Act - if we can do it alone, we will. But as I said, I'd pick up the phone and we would work with Mr Peters and New Zealand First."
Swarbrick on historic result for Greens
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Auckland Central Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick told the AM Show the Green Party result on election night was history-making.
"We have three electorates - it's the first time a minor party has held those three general electorates," she said.
"With the win in Auckland Central, we have also seen the first time the Greens have retained an electorate."
She said they also grew their vote coming out a second term in a relationship with a Labour lead government.
"No politician and no political party is entitled to the support of any electorate, communities or neighbourhoods, so we work doubly hard everyday to earn that trust and respect to be able to do that work.
"It's phenomenal the results we got off that grassroots campaigning."
Seymour on negotiations
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Act Party leader David Seymour told the AM Show they were looking at the prospect of a three-way negotiation and he welcomes all voices to the table.
"If New Zealand First want to be part of the next government, I think they should front up and say what they want the next government to achieve and what can they contribute,” he said.
“But if they don’t want to, then I think the right way forward is for Act and National to hammer out a deal.
“There are three weeks where we don’t have the result, and I would expect the New Zealand people to hit the ground running when that three weeks is up, rather than get the result on November 3 and then take another month.”
Insiders reveal what Winston is like during negotiations
Sophie Ryan
Ever wonder what happens inside coalition negotiations with NZ First? David Fisher can reveal behind-the-scenes details of two deals.
Seymour says wait for final count
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Act Party leader David Seymour says it would be unwise to form a government with National until all special votes are counted. The end result could be a three-way coalition with NZ First.
“You have to respect every vote and there’s about 567,000 people whose votes haven’t been counted,” he told TVNZ’s Breakfast this morning.
His priorities included getting government spending under control, reducing red tape, dealing with crime and holding a referendum on the meaning of the Treaty of Waitangi.
Seymour wouldn’t confirm if the referendum was a bottom line for him in coalition negotiations.
“I think it’s critical that this conversation happens…we believe that it will happen under the next government. But of course, you've got to get one, potentially two other parties to agree with it. So that's our goal is to ensure that they do.”
Welcome to a new week
Sophie Ryan
And a new era. New Zealand voted for change and the National Party came away victorious with 39 per cent of the vote and 50 seats. The special votes are still to be counted, and while we wait for those final results, negotiations will be underway between National, Act and NZ First as to what the shape of the next Government will look like.
STORY CONTINUES
Yesterday, Luxon and other high-ranking party members gathered in his Remuera home for a three-hour strategy meeting. Among the National Party MPs arriving were Todd McClay, Simeon Brown, Paul Goldsmith, Chris Bishop and deputy leader Nicola Willis. National Party president Sylvia Wood and Luxon’s chief of staff Cameron Burrows also attended
Luxon said the purpose of the meeting was to “digest the election results” and think about the next steps.
He remained tight-lipped on what had been decided, not answering whether the party had firmed up when it might conduct talks with members of the Act Party or New Zealand First. On Monday morning, Luxon confirmed he had reached out to both parties.
“I said we won’t do it through the media, we’ll do it directly with the parties involved out of respect to them,” Luxon said.
“There’s a bit of volatility sitting there but we’ll carry on working with the parties directly. We know that the result is going to bounce around a little bit and that’s the thing that we need to see how that’s going to button down.”
Luxon will head to Wellington today. Seymour will be down this week too. They will be accompanied, also on Monday, by members of the New Zealand First caucus. By midweek, Wellington, empty of politicians since August, will be buzzing with new MPs.
Flights to the capital were booked out on Sunday as MPs - victorious and vanquished - flocked back to Wellington. And while this is all ostensibly for Orientation Week for new MPs to learn the job and get acquainted with their new caucuses, the three likely parties of government will launch into more strenuous negotiations.
Already, the two minor parties to the Government are circling each other, attempting to bolster their negotiating position before special votes are declared on November 3.
Act, whose negotiation team is likely to include leader Seymour, deputy Brooke van Velden, chief of staff Andrew Ketels, and a member of the party’s board, possibly Catherine Isaac, is keen for a two-party Government.
Seymour is talking down the possibility of going into government with NZ First, saying that it was “possible” but not necessarily “likely”.
“Special votes haven’t been counted yet,” Seymour said.
On election night too, Seymour said the voters had delivered National and Act enough to govern alone.
Barely.
The current counts gives National 50 seats and Act 11. Add in an extra seat from the Port Waikato byelection and you have 62, a majority of one seat in what would then be a 122-seat Parliament. The risk for National is not only that this majority might not be large enough to survive any mid-term blow-ups, which have become a fairly frequent occurrence for both big parties, but that it might lose a few seats when the final result, including special votes, is published on November 3.
National tends to do poorly with special votes. In fact, campaign chair Chris Bishop told Q+A he expects to lose “at least one seat” on specials.
National and its team is giving itself room to breathe, and leaving the door open to some form of arrangement with NZ First.
After watching the rugby on Sunday morning, Luxon fronted a media conference, talking up his ability as a team-builder and negotiator.
“I’m a person who likes to bring teams together and make sure that I get the best out of that team and use all the skills that are in that team,” Luxon said.
“I’ve done a lot of mergers and acquisitions. I’ve done a lot of negotiations,” he said.
The party’s negotiating team is likely to include Luxon, Willis, Bishop, and chief of staff Burrows.
Paul Goldsmith was also spotted at Luxon’s house yesterday as part of his inner circle “brains trust” meeting.
Peters is known to like and trust Gerry Brownlee, who is likely to be deployed in negotiations with NZ First, as well as McClay, who has known Peters for decades - his father Roger McClay served in National’s caucus with Peters in the 1980s, before he split to join NZ First. McClay was also at Luxon’s meeting yesterday.
Luxon is saying kinder things about Peters than any National leader since perhaps Jim Bolger, saying he was “very appreciative” of Peters’ conciliatory tone on Saturday night.
“I really appreciated Winston Peter’s remarks, on his offer of help, and wanting to act in New Zealand’s interests. I respect that,” Luxon said.
At the end of Sunday’s strategy meeting, Luxon could not even confirm or deny whether he had spoken to Peters yet.
Peters, as is typical, is giving nothing away, but was stressing his desire to wait for special votes.
“We’ve got to talk to my colleagues first, and then we’ve got to decide what we’re going to do and who we’re doing it with,” he said on Sunday.
“I’m waiting to know what the final result of this election is and it’s clear we won’t know until the third of November,” Peters said.
Privately, however, the party wants to get National to come to the table earlier, knowing it may be easier to deal with Peters’ offer to work cooperatively now when National and Act have a majority, than having to beg Peters to pick up the phone should that majority disappear.
The party is keen to exploit the leverage it has now before the final count is known on November 3. If they wait, there is a chance they might not be needed at all.
Their negotiating team, at a minimum, will be Peters, his lieutenant Shane Jones, and former MP Darroch Ball.
NZ First is trying to increase the pressure on National to get them to a deal while the numbers still look favourable, rather than risk things turning against the party on special votes.
They know they can exploit the fear of the still-very-likely scenario that National and Act will lose their majority when special votes are tallied, giving Peter’s additional leverage.
They want National to get to the table quickly and negotiate a deal in principle quickly, exploiting National’s fear that its stronger negotiating position will weaken after special votes are counted and the final numbers are revealed on November 3.
The party knows it will be in the outer orbit of the Government. Luxon and Seymour have chemistry that Luxon and Peters do not have - and that Peters and Seymour will probably never have.
NZ First knows there are some easy things National can offer: the return of former fiefdoms in the primary industries: forestry, fisheries, perhaps state-owned enterprises.
The most difficult NZ First ask will be a second Covid-19 inquiry, on top of the Royal Commission launched by Labour.
This is firming up as something of a “bottom line” for the party, which knows it has soared above the 5 per cent threshold at least partly thanks to soaking up the support of people left angry and disaffected by the Covid response. The party has said this could be the pretext to offering compensation to people who lost jobs because of vaccine mandates and proven vaccine injuries.
But this sort of thing is not something National and Act would be likely to agree to, however, NZ First wants it dearly, remembering the way that firearm owners turned on the party in the wake of its support of gun reforms after March 15.
Labour MPs will also head to Wellington this week. Only two new MPs will be welcomed into its caucus, such was the devastation of the party’s loss.
Today will see a caretaker Cabinet meet, and on Tuesday the party’s caucus will convene, and the party will farewell its crop of MPs who failed to make it back. They get one last perk from Parliament (along with their salaries for another three months): a return flight to Wellington to clear out their offices.
Labour’s caucus must hold a vote to endorse Chris Hipkins’ leadership within three months of polling day. Hipkins needs a 60 per cent majority to survive that vote - if he decides to take it that far.
He may decide to fall on his sword ahead of the vote, triggering Labour’s complicated electoral college system for electing a leader. It will be the first time since 2014 that caucus, unions and members have been asked for their say on who the Labour leader should be.
Labour MPs and candidates were saying nothing on Sunday, with campaign chair Megan Woods the only one doing any speaking for the party.
She said it needed to “regroup as a party and have a look at what’s happened”.
“Like any party in this situation, we have to go away and reassess where we’re at and what this all means for us. But we will regroup. We’ve done it before,” she said.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.