Donald Trump’s victory: Sir John Key and Brad Olsen weigh in on economic implications

Sir John Key and economist Brad Olsen have weighed in on what the dawn of the second Trump era will mean for New Zealand’s economy.

Republican Donald Trump has claimed victory over Democrat Kamala Harris in the US presidential election overnight, four years after he left the White House.

He is also tipped to take hold of the Senate and is making gains in the House, giving the Republican Party a strong hold over the American economy.

Key, who was vocal about his support for Trump during the campaign, told Newstalk ZB’s Ryan Bridge that Trump’s win is a part of a “bigger movement”.

He said New Zealanders and New Zealand media could not see or understand the stronghold Trump had on America before the election as he could.

“Truthfully, there is a movement happening around the world.

“You can feel, you know, all sorts of emotions about that, but you can’t deny it.”

He said he did not want to “sugarcoat” the implications this might have on trade and that they did “concern” him.

“We do have a very good relationship to a certain degree, you know, Donald Trump’s been notorious for being a deal-doer … I think they like New Zealand.”

He said although there were loud voices disproving of Trump, there was no denying people identified with him.

“He is a bit of a brawler, a bit of a fighter … this is a guy who gets shot in the head.

“You can’t fake this stuff, and he gets up and his first reaction is to say ‘Fight, fight, fight.”

In an interview with Stuff a month ago, Key said he thought Trump would win the election and while Trump would not necessarily be good for New Zealand, he would be a better pick for the economy. Key had also described Democrat contender Kamala Harris as “quite left-wing” and “well left of [US President Joe] Biden.”

Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said the average Kiwi with a KiwiSaver will not need to worry about the market following Trump’s win.

Olsen said investors in New Zealand do not need to be too concerned as the markets will “fluctuate quite a bit”.

“Really what you are seeing is yes, there’s definitely a strong market reaction, but there probably is still going to be some volatility in the markets as everyone tries to pick not only today but over the next couple of days and up until the 20th of January.”

He said there are still questions about what economic policies Trump will pursue first – exchanges, tariffs or regulations – or if he will go at them all at once.

“[Not knowing] what exactly is going to happen first, I think is the big challenge for everyone looking at the economic ramifications of the change in President.

“Because there are a lot of different options on the table and they all have different impacts on quite different parts of the economy.”

Rachel Maher is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. She has worked for the Herald since 2022.

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