Climate Change Commission: Too much reliance on forestry, calls for more renewable energy, electric vehicles and limits on gas in buildings

The Government’s climate change watchdog says New Zealand is relying too much on planting trees to soak up greenhouse gas emissions, essentially passing on the burden of making actual cuts to following generations.

It has also proposed stopping fossil gas from being installed in new buildings where alternatives are available, while also raising major concerns about the regulatory framework from renewable energy through to active and rapid transport, and even implementing low-methane technology into the farming sector.

The Climate Change Commission, in draft advice released today, also said more work was needed to rapidly increase renewable energy and infrastructure across the country and help supercharge electric vehicle uptake, which is currently proving so popular it risks overloading the network without urgent upgrades.

Improving these areas would help meet current targets, including 100 per cent of new light vehicles registered by 2030 being electric, slashing driving 20 per cent overall by 2035 and more than doubling active and public transport use.

The commission’s advice looks at how the country is progressing in its bid to reduce emissions and proposes what needs to be done over the 2026-2030 period.

New Zealand is committed to reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 – excluding biogenic methane, which includes agricultural emissions such as cow burps and farts.

This is part of the country’s contribution to global efforts to reign in emissions that heat the atmosphere and keep global warming below 1.5C, which scientists say is critical to avoiding the most catastrophic impacts.

To achieve that target, the Government has set emissions budgets, the first of which runs in five-year periods through to 2035.

Over the first period to 2025, the Government wants to keep emissions to around 290 megatonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e) - or slightly under the emissions currently projected.

While the allowance lifts slightly over the second period – that’s 305MtCO2e between 2026 and 2030 – it’s still calculated to be about 20 per cent less than what the country pumped into the atmosphere in the five years to 2021.

The third 240MtCO2e budget, for 2031 to 2035, represents a 35 per cent cut.

Agriculture has separate targets, including reducing gross biogenic methane emissions 10 per cent by 2030, and 27 to 47 per cent by 2050. The variations in targets, while controversial, are designed to recognise the fact limited abilities exist to reduce such emissions currently without culling livestock numbers.

Key points:

Climate Change Commission chairman Dr Rod Carr said there was currently momentum towards reducing emissions, but the country was still not doing enough and better policies were needed.

In the 2026-2030 period, the most critical work was in decarbonising the energy sector, including dramatically increasing the amount of renewable energy available and improving infrastructure.

Across the 2031-2035 period, the largest reductions in emissions were expected to take place in the transport sector.

The Commission proposed a range of recommendations to reduce emissions from households, including restricting fossil gas in new buildings where viable alternatives existed, such as subdivisions and existing areas where gas is piped.

The report noted a need for “pragmatic judgment”, noting commercial cooking does not currently have a viable alternative. Biogas was also currently prohibitively expensive in many situations and so would need Government support.

Gross emissions in the energy and industry sectors needed to reduce by about 20 per cent between 2026 and 2030 to help meet the budget.

Decarbonising the energy sector would also be crucial to making the emissions reductions required in the transport sector possible, with the Government targeting two-thirds of new light vehicles registered in 2030 to be electric and 100 per cent by 2035. In 2022, 11.5 per cent of light vehicles registered were electric.

It is estimated 28 per cent more electricity will be needed by 2035 compared to 2020, or the equivalent of two very large wind farms built each year. There was also a risk a lack of electric vehicle charging infrastructure could hinder uptake.

Carr said there were currently major obstacles to building renewable energy and infrastructure, including in consenting and planning. He said current reforms to the Resource Management Act were expected to take as long as 10 years to implement.

“We need action well before then,” he said.

The advice said the infrastructure deficit and planning and consenting “complexities” could threaten 29-34 per cent of emissions reductions required in transport and energy.

This also affected active and public transport, which had been consistently underfunded but was needed to more than double from 5 per cent to 11 per cent by 2030 in kilometres travelled. This still put New Zealand well behind countries in the EU at 17.5 per cent, for example.

The Government also has a target of reducing the collective distance travelled in light vehicles by 20 per cent by 2035.

The Commission also proposed a more simplified approach and increase in funding for integrated transport networks, prioritising public and active transport, citing massive delays in current projects such as Let’s Get Wellington Moving, which started in 2016 but is yet to begin building public transit systems.

The advice also called for a more transparent approach to reporting emissions by committing to “gross emissions budgets”, or actual emissions reductions, as opposed to net targets, which include offsets from domestic forestry.

While emissions are guaranteed, the level of offset can vary greatly from year to year depending on things like harvest, disease and climate events themselves, such as cyclones.

Carr said reporting and enforcing gross levels would give the public and businesses more clarity about what was required, as opposed to net emissions, which included forestry offsets.

For gross emissions, the commission recommended setting them at 362MtCO2e from 2026-2030 and 322MtCO2e from 2031-2035.

Carr said alongside this were issues with the ETS, which treated one tonne of emissions the same as one tonne of sequestration.

Relying on trees was risky and raised questions of fairness, as trees planted today to account for emissions would have to be held as forests for “centuries to come”.

Carr said the net-zero target for 2050 was “2050 and beyond”.

“We are leaving them a legacy of ours to mind as a consequence of our use of the atmosphere today.”

Carr said a reliance on forestry risked New Zealand “hiding behind a green veil of pine forestry”, with the potential to fall behind the rest of the world and retain a high emissions economy.

The ETS was anticipated to see the price of emissions steadily increase and effectively drive down gross emissions as it became more expensive to pollute. But emissions prices have already driven an increase in forest planting.

Over 60,000 hectares of new exotic forestry was planned for 2022 – nearly double the average 32,000ha predicted annually between 2022 and 2030 when the Government set its emissions budgets.

On agriculture, the Commission said it continued to support a pricing of emissions and wanted better Government support to help farmers take up new technology.

The Commission also recommended the Government better include mātauranga Māori in policy design, and better resource iwi and hapū and work with them.

Carr said surveys showed 80 per cent of New Zealanders wanted stronger climate action.

“We need to convince that 80 per cent there is no time for delay.”

The Commission’s advice is out from today for consultation over the next eight weeks.

The final advice will be presented to the Government by the end of this year.